Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Options Insider Radio Interviews Jay Caauwe of the CFE/CBOE

Mark Longo and Options Insider Radio recently conducted an extensive interview with Jay Caauwe, Director of Business Development for the CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE).
As regular readers know, I believe that an understanding of VIX futures is the cornerstone for being able to analyze and trade successfully the entire VIX product space, including VIX options and VIX exchange-traded products.
For those who are looking to get up to speed as soon as possible on VIX futures or perhaps just enhance their existing knowledge base, I recommend listening to Options Insider Radio 83: The Future of VIX Futures.
Related posts:


Disclosure(s): the CBOE is an advertiser on VIX and More

CNBC Real-Time for the iPad

Since there seems to be such a large supply-demand imbalance (little supply, lots of demand) regarding information on trading apps for the iPad, I have decided to devote a little time to drilling down on some of these apps.

First up is CNBC Real-Time for iPad, which offers a large amount of content ranging from market data and graphics to news and videos. For the investor whose primary goal is to monitor the markets when he or she is not at a desk, this app is an excellent choice. The market data goes beyond just stocks and the major market equity indices and includes commodities, currencies and bonds. As the app name indicates, quotes are in real-time and even include a separate Pre-Markets tab with equity futures data. The graphic below shows the menu structure and various tabs available. In the screen capture, I have elected to highlight the Markets > Movers > S&P data. A similar tab, Dow Impact, ranks the five stocks with the largest positive impact and negative daily impact on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, along with the point impact for each stock.

Looking at other features, the news and video content are what you would expect from CNBC: high quality, voluminous and current.

For portfolio monitoring, the My Stocks content pulls charts, news and videos together for each watch list entry. The charts use real-time NASDAQ and NYSE data and make it easy to compare a security to a variety of indices, as well as utilize technical indicators such as moving averages (SMA, EMA, WMA), Bollinger bands, MACD, RSI, DMI and a handful of others. In short, the market technician is well-served here, though it would be nice to have some ability to customize the default settings on the technical indicators.  One thing that is lacking is an ability to enter share and cost basis information so that investors can easily track changes to their portfolio in dollar terms across the full range of their holdings.

Even with these small caveats, all in all the CNBC Real-Time for iPad is an excellent ‘do everything’ app for those who wish to monitor the markets remotely and do not need to trade directly from their market monitor platform. Of course, there is nothing stopping this person from keeping their favorite broker-based application open at the same time and becoming an opportunistic trader as well.

Related posts:


[graphic: CNBC Real-Time for iPad]

Disclosure(s): none

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Initial Thoughts on Using the iPad for Trading

Thanks to all who offered up some comments on their experiences using the iPad for trading. Today I will summarize the feedback I have received from other traders, then comment on my own initial experiences with the iPad 2.

Traders express positive feelings about four iPad apps in particular. Two of the four were broker applications:

  • thinkorswim mobile – now that thinkorswim and T.D. Ameritrade are finally showing some signs of integration, the TOS and TDA apps are surprisingly similar
  • Mobile TWS – TWS is the Trader WorkStation app from Interactive Brokers
Two others were general applications that are aimed in replicating desktop functionality:
  • LogMeIn Ignition – According to the company web site, and confirmed by several users, “One touch on your iPhone or iPad lets you remotely access your computers anywhere, anytime and manage your files on the go. Directly control your desktop as if you’re sitting in front of it, access your computer applications as if they were on your iPad, and view or manage files directly from your iPad/iPhone.”
  • Air Display – works like a wireless monitor
My experiences with the iPad encompass limited exploratory work over the course of two trading sessions, but I thought I would share my thoughts nonetheless.

As a desktop complement, I find that the iPad has limited utility. Perhaps the largest value would be in offloading some peripheral trading or general computing functionality, such as monitoring news events and the like.

As a mobile computing device, I believe the iPad has considerable potential, not just for news, but for analysis, trade execution, position monitoring and the like. I found the thinkorswim and Interactive Brokers trading apps to be excellent and I was also pleasantly surprised by the Fidelity iPad app, which I would put at least on par with the TOS and IB apps as my top three broker apps that I have examined.

As an options trader, I also looked briefly at the apps from optionsXpress and OptionsHouse and while these are fine initial efforts, in my opinion, they have a way to go before they can be considered in the same league as the three mentioned above.

CNBC (CNBC Real Time) and Bloomberg (Bloomberg for iPad and Bloomberg Anywhere, which is the full Bloomberg terminal) also have apps. I experimented with CNBC and Bloomberg for iPad and came away with the impression that these are both adequate general-purpose applications, but traders will likely prefer the offerings from their brokers, including those who are looking for better charting applications.

I have done very little trading with my iPhone over the years, but it does help me keep on top of any sort of extreme market conditions when I am traveling, but it always feels as if I am about 95% in the dark in terms of news and what is really moving the markets. With the iPad, I can see iPad trading as being almost comparable to laptop-based trading, but in an more transportable form factor and perhaps a simpler and more direct user interface.

I eagerly await the next generation of trading apps.

Feel free to add your own experiences in the comments below and/or suggest some additional iPad trading apps.

Related posts:
Disclosure(s): none

Monday, April 4, 2011

Chart of the Week: Crude Oil and Transports

With crude oil prices hovering around $108/bbl. level, it is only natural to begin wondering just what kind of impact crude prices will have on stocks.

Looking back at recent history, crude oil and stocks have been positively correlated, largely because an improving economy translates into increased demand for crude oil. At some point, of course, rising crude oil prices are going to translate into a drag on GDP and on equities. Consensus estimates for the impact of crude oil on GDP generally assign about a 0.25% drop in U.S. GDP for every $10 increase in crude oil.

Whether the negative correlation between crude oil and stocks begins to become apparent at $110 or perhaps at higher levels remains to be seen.

When oil prices begin to be a significant drag on stocks, it will likely show up first in the transportation sector. Looking at the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices since the beginning of 2010 in this week’s chart of the week, it is obvious that the positive correlation between crude oil prices and transports has continued all the way up to the present. While I expect this positive correlation to end shortly, as long as transports continue to move up in concert with rising crude oil prices, investors should feel comfortable with their long positions in equities.

Related posts:




[source: StockCharts.com]

Disclosure(s): long crude oil futures at time of writing

Sunday, April 3, 2011

VIX and More Newsletter Celebrates Third Anniversary

Today’s publication of the VIX and More Newsletter marks the third anniversary of the launch of this newsletter, which was launched on the heels of the demise of Bear Stearns amidst increasing concerns about the stability of the financial system and increasing market volatility.

Three years later the newsletter has definitely found its voice and represents a more detailed discussion of geopolitical and macroeconomic events than can be found here as well as some broader perspective on the full range of asset classes and issues related to volatility.

Rather than clutter up this blog, I have an entire blog dedicated to the newsletter, as well as the model portfolios and Stock of the Week ‘Sequential Portfolio’ (yes it really is up 1918% in its first 2 3/4 years) information I discuss in the newsletter each week: VIX and More Subscriber Newsletter Blog.

Disclosure(s): none

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Using the iPad for Trading

Unless FedEx (FDX) and Apple (AAPL) have their facts wrong, today the iPad 2 will arrive at my door step.

Since I passed on the iPad 1, this will be my first chance to play with something that I have no idea what I will ultimately end up interacting with. This could turn out to be new computer in a different form factor a toy or anything in between.

While I will try to integrate the iPad into my trading, I am not sure how this is going to happen either. I am not a big fan of using my iPhone for trading unless my environment does not allow any alternatives. As for the iPad, I can imagine it as a complement to my main trading setup, an excellent portable alternative to the iPhone and perhaps filling a bunch of other roles that I am not able to anticipate.

I would love hearing from other traders about how they use the iPad in their trading, whether it means news, charts, quotes, trade execution or whatever. If I get enough responses of note – either here or on Twitter (http://www.twitter.com/VIXandMore) – I will summarize the information in a future post and add in my own experiences as well.

Related posts:

Disclosure(s): none

VIN, VIF and an Obsolete VIX

Mark Sebastian at Option Pit has an interesting post up, Could the VIX Become Obsolete? that I suspect VIX and More readers will enjoy pondering. In it Mark argues that because of the VIX calculation methodology, SPX weeklys frequently offer a better insight into the state of current volatility than the VIX. Mark takes this analysis one step further by wondering aloud if this development could mean the demise of the VIX.

For those who are not familiar with the details of the VIX calculation methodology, the VIX bases its calculations on the front month and second month of the SPX for the majority of the expiration cycle. Eight days prior to the VIX options expiration, the SPX options used for the calculations roll forward one month to the second and third month.

Keeping in mind that the VIX blends SPX options with two different expiration dates to arrive at a constant maturity 30-day weighted average of SPX implied volatility, an example may help to illustrate what is happening. Next month the VIX options expire on Wednesday, April 20th. From today up to Monday, April 11th, the VIX is calculated based on the SPX front month (April) options as well as the second month (May) options. On April 11th, eight trading days prior to VIX options expiration, the SPX options used in the VIX calculations roll forward one month so that the near-term month used in the calculations is May and the far-term month used in the calculations is June.

Now, here is the fun part. It is a little known fact that the CBOE actually maintains separate indices for the near-term month VIX (VIN) and the far-term month VIX (VIF). Just pop those tickers into your streaming quotes and you too can watch not just the VIX, but the two components used in the VIX constant maturity blend. Right now, for instance, I show a VIX of 17.88, a VIN of 16.98 and a VIF or 18.23.  Just be sure to keep track of the SPX options series roll eight trading days before the VIX options expiration.

Of course the VIX really isn’t about to become obsolete. Just like any index, it suffers some limitations from being only one number. If you want a quick snapshot of where market volatility is, the VIX is the gold standard. If you want some more details and are one of those who likes to look under the hood and tweak the engine a little, the VIX futures and the SPX options themselves are probably the most important groups of market volatility data to study. For those who do not have easy access to VIX futures data, consider adding VIN and VIF to your watch list, to broaden your understanding of what is driving the level of the VIX.

Related posts (some excellent information in this group of posts and a particularly helpful graphic in XXV and the New VIX ETN Landscape):

Disclosure(s): none

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Fukushima Daiichi and ‘Event Theta’

I am generally not a fan of so-called air quotes, nor am I a fan of the gratuitous use of quotation marks for added emphasis in print. That being said, I have this tendency to invent new concepts and attach labels to them that I pull out of the sky. When I do so, as is the case with event theta, the quotation marks are merely shorthand for warning readers that I am making stuff up and cloaking it in somewhat fancy-sounding attire. In other words, if you Google “event theta” you will find a lot of information about sorority functions and the like, but nothing (as far as I can tell) about options concepts.

So what is event theta and why do I think it is important enough to invent a label for it?

Nineteen days ago, Japan was hit by a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and a subsequent tsunami that measured at least 30 feet high in some places. As everyone now knows, the earthquake and particularly the tsunami damaged the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and set off a chain of events that resulted in a partial core meltdown, damage to at least one containment vessel, overheating of spent fuel rods and dangerous levels of radiation leaks. The situation has been a fluid one, with a limited flow of information, particularly during the early stages of the disaster.

As these events unfolded, seemingly like a slow-motion train wreck, I kept asking myself whether time was in favor of or working against the efforts of those who were trying to limit the damage to the nuclear facility and surrounding areas. In other words, was this a positive theta event (time in our favor) or a negative theta event (a fight against the clock.) Not being an expert in the field of nuclear energy and knowing that certain factors could spiral out of control quickly, but also knowing that efforts were underway to stabilize some of the processes in the plant, I was left to guessing whether current efforts were more likely to fall short and result in a vicious cycle or were expected to stem the problem and turn the tide in favor of the rescue team.

Knowing whether this was a positive or negative theta event also has substantial implications for investment strategies. From a hedging perspective, event theta could influence the selection of hedging vehicles, the anticipated timing for those hedges, how the hedges might be structured and what sort of prices might be appropriate. For the speculative investor, event theta can also help to determine the risk-reward payoff structure and how it varies over time. Anyone who trades in VIX futures and deals with the VIX term structure on a daily basis should have some insights into potential mismatches between event theta and term structure.

Event theta is an idea that complements some of the thinking I have presented in this space earlier regarding event volatility. I maintain that it applies to Libya, the European sovereign debt crisis, and almost every other threat to the financial markets. Going forward, I will give event volatility and event theta some additional treatment in this space as conditions warrant.

Related posts:

Disclosure(s): none

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

The VIX Summit, a.k.a. the CBOE Risk Management Conference

About a month ago I had an opportunity to attend the CBOE Risk Management Conference, which could easily had been called the VIX Summit. This was the first time I attended this conference and in retrospect, I have little doubt that if VIXophiles were only to attend one conference per year, this would be the one.

Where else can you find several hundred like-minded souls who obsess about the VIX and volatility on a daily basis? Where else could you holler out “Hey, Mr. VIX?” in a crowded room and expect at least a dozen heads to turn?

This year’s agenda tells part of the story. Some of the sessions I had the pleasure of attending included:

  • VIX Option Strategies
  • Tail Risk Protection: A Panel Discussion on Why and How Investors Might Hedge Downside Risk
  • Volatility ETNs and ETFs: A Panel Discussion on the Construction and Usage of Volatility-Based Investment Products
  • Equity Correlation and Macro  Investment Decisions, Crash Risk and Correlation Trading Paradigms
  • What the Derivatives Markets Tells us About the Macro Economy
In addition to the sessions above, there were also sessions on cross-asset class volatility strategies; short and relative value volatility strategies; long-dated equity index volatility, etc. Of course, the real value in this type of event is getting an opportunity to meet people in the business and cross-pollinate not just ideas but also relationships.

I went to the RMC hoping that some of the ideas that I would be exposed to might change how I viewed my trading and give me some thoughts about how I might tweak some of my existing strategies or branch out into new strategic soil. The conference certainly accomplished that objective and in a most enjoyable setting, at Dana Point, California.

So, when it comes to planning out next year’s itinerary, give some strong consideration to attending the 28th annual Risk Management Conference, which I believe is scheduled to return to Florida (it alternates between the East Coast in even years and the West Coast in odd years) for 2012.

Finally, note that some of the presentations from prior years have been archived, so that those who believe good ideas have a meaningful half-life can access them at their leisure.

Disclosure(s): the CBOE is an advertiser on VIX and More

Monday, March 28, 2011

Expiring Monthly March 2011 Issue Recap

Just a quick reminder that as Expiring Monthly: The Option Traders Journal publishes on the Monday following options expiration, the March issue was published a week ago today and is (still) available for subscribers to download.

Note that the Expiring Monthly web site was recently overhauled to make for a better user experience, offer archived articles and provide a better platform for further content enhancements. While I may be biased, there is no doubt it is a substantial improvement over the previous version of the web site.

The March issue includes a feature article from guest author Michael McCarty and is titled, A Multi-Dimensional Look at Implied Volatility: Several New Releases from the CBOE. My contribution is a complementary one: Evaluating Volatility Across Asset Classes. Among the other articles of interest is an interview with Jeff Augen, whose recent publications have helped to shed light on the workings of volatility, particularly at the end of the options expiration cycle and at earnings announcements.

I should also note that last month I did not provide a recap of the February issue of Expiring Monthly. That issue had a feature article on non-directional trading and some additional content related non-directional trading, including an article I authored for the diagnostically-oriented trader, which is titled, What Is a Non-Trending Market?

In keeping with tradition, I have reproduced a copy of the Table of Contents for the March issue below for those who may be interested in learning more about the magazine. Thanks to all who have already subscribed. For those who are interested in subscription information and additional details about the magazine, you can find all that and more at http://www.expiringmonthly.com/.

Related posts:



[source: Expiring Monthly]

Disclosure(s): I am one of the founders and owners of Expiring Monthly

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Webinar: Using Volatility as an Asset Class

I recently participated in a webinar sponsored by AdvisorOne which tackled the subject of volatility as an asset class. Cliff Stanton of Prima Capital was the featured presenter and he presented the highlights from a white paper he authored, Volatility as an Asset Class. For those who are interested, I recommend clicking through the link above (free registration required) to review the white paper, which takes an in-depth look at the VIX over the course of 17 pages, from the index and its idiosyncrasies to the VIX futures and the first generation of VIX ETNs, VXX and VXZ.

As far as the VIX white paper is concerned, it would be a stretch for me to take issue with any of the analytical work or conclusions derived from the data. Instead, I chose to define the problem of volatility as an asset class more broadly and look at short volatility strategies, long-short strategies and VIX strategies that focus on the VIX futures term structure. In doing so, my comments build on my January 12th Barron’s article, Ways to Turn Volatility into an Asset Class and make what I believe is a strong case for volatility products as an asset class.

AdvisorOne has archived the full Using Volatility as an Asset Class webinar here (free registration required)

Finally, since I have already gone out of my way to proclaim 2011 as the year volatility becomes a mainstream asset class, I will have a lot more to say about this subject in the weeks and months ahead.

Related posts:

Disclosure(s): none

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

CBOE Rolls Out a New Blog; I Am a Guest Contributor

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the same people who brought you the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and a host of other volatility products, recently joined the blogosphere with the launch of What’s On Our Minds...

For starters, the new blog is an excellent way to get inside the heads of the popular instructors from The Options Institute, which serves as the educational arm of the CBOE. Regular blog contributors from the Options Institute’s staff include Jim Bittman, Marty Kearney, Peter Lusk and Russell Rhoads.

In addition to the CBOE staff, What’s On Our Minds... draws upon the knowledge of a wide range of guest contributors, including familiar names such as Larry McMillan, Price Headley and Michael Thomsett. I will also be contributing to the CBOE blog from time to time. My initial contribution to the CBOE blog is titled Volatility and Revolutions. In it, I crunch the numbers on volatility during the Cuban Missile Crisis and in the wake of the Pearl Harbor attack and the (first) Gulf War. My conclusion?

“…geopolitical crises frequently fail to delivery market volatility that matches the extreme level of fear and anxiety being experienced by investors, diplomats and ordinary citizens.”
If you are a VIXophile – or even if you are not – you should definitely add the CBOE blog to your daily reading list.

Disclosure(s): the CBOE is an advertiser on VIX and More

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Chart of the Week: Flight to Safety ETPs

It has already been an interesting year for students of market sentiment, volatility and geopolitical influences on financial markets. We have seen revolutions of various sizes and shapes in the likes of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, with smaller uprisings in Bahrain, Algeria and elsewhere in North Africa and Middle East. For the most part, volatility in the equity markets has been rather muted prior to the Libyan revolution and its influence on crude oil prices.

In this week’s chart of the week, I examine the year-to-date performance of five exchange-traded products (ETPs) that are central to the flight-to-safety trade. They include volatility (VXX), gold (GLD), oil (USO), the dollar (UUP) and U.S. Treasuries (TLT).

Note that with the exception of crude oil, the political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East has not been disruptive enough to make these trades profitable ones in 2011, though there has been an uptick across the board since violence heated up in Egypt on January 25th and in Libya starting on February 15th. The VXX chart does an excellent job of capturing the nature of the VXX gambit. Even with the geopolitical turmoil and spike in crude oil prices, this ETN is still down 16.2% on the year. The volatility spikes have provided VXX longs with very short-lived opportunities to capitalize on heightened market anxiety, with the chart reflecting the continued downward trend and high volatility in this ETN. [As an aside, a similar chart swapping VXZ for VXX would show very little difference in terms of performance.]

So the next time you think about a long volatility position in the context of a geopolitical crisis, give some strong consideration to some alternative flight-to-safety plays.

Related posts:


[source: ETFreplay.com]

Disclosure(s): long VXZ, short VXX, USO and TLT at time of writing

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Blog Posting to Resume this Weekend

Thanks to all who have inquired about my absence and health.  It turns out that I have been under the weather, then taking some time off.  Originally I had intended to post more intermittently rather than coming to a complete stop, but now I am back to a normal posting schedule.

The recent volatility spike has generated dozens of questions and I will try to address as many of those as possible as posting begins to return to normal this weekend.  I have also managed to fall far behind on emails and blog comments and will do my best to get caught up in this department as soon as I can.

In the interim, for those who are new to VIX and More or may be looking to cherry pick some of the best posts from the past in order to help shed light on the current situation, the following will certainly be of interest:

Note also that for certain posts which have a comprehensive retrospective view of content in the blog (such as this one) or critical market events, I have labeled these with an 'archival' label.  Just click on the link to pull up all posts with a similar label.  For more basic educational content, try the 'educational' label.  Finally,  for those who are interested in posts on specific subjects, use the hyperlinks for subjects such as VXX, contango, VIX futures, VIX options, VIX spikes, etc.

Of course there is also the custom Google search bar in the right hand column just below the CBOE:RMC ad for specific keyword searches on this site.  Which reminds me, I will be attending the aforementioned CBOE Risk Management Conference.  If you are a reader and wish to say hello, this is an excellent time to do it.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Chart of the Week: EGPT and Collateral Damage

Unrest in Egypt is barely three weeks old and already the ripple effect has crossed the globe in several waves.
I find it interesting how regional and country ETFs can be of some assistance in evaluating how investors are thinking in terms of contagion risk, be it political or economic – or at the very least in terms of the breadth and depth of the economic impact of specific events.

In this week’s chart of the week, I endeavor to track some elements of the relative geographical spread of concern with a handful of ETFs. The baseline ETF, EGPT, shows how the situation deteriorated over the long weekend in the U.S. from January 14th to January 18th, then began to accelerate downward during the January 26th trading session.

In terms of impact, the additional four ETFs include one broad-based frontier ETF, FRN, and three single-country ETFs: Turkey (TUR); Israel (EIS); and South Africa (EZA). Of this group, the Turkey ETF has proven to be the most volatile during the crisis and also suffered the largest drawdown. Interestingly, the Israel ETF has been the least volatile of the group, but the only one which appeared not to find a bottom on January 28th and continued to trend lower. The top performer of the group is EZA, the South African ETF. EZA has fallen slightly more than half as far as EGPT since the beginning of the crisis and has steadily gained strength during the past week. Among country ETFs, EGPT and TUR were the top two performers during the past week.

Note that there are several regional ETFs which cover northern Africa and the Middle East. I discussed these during the Dubai crisis at some length in Frontier ETFs and Chart of the Week: Market Vectors Gulf States ETF (MES).

Related posts:


[source: ETFreplay.com]

Disclosure(s): long TUR at time of writing

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