Showing posts with label iPhone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label iPhone. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Apple Products vs. Platform

Apple (AAPL) is an unusual stock for several reasons, not the least of which is the strong retail demand for the stock and a large contingent of customer-zealots who regularly worship at the altar of Steve Jobs.

Throw together the factors mentioned above, Apple’s history of important product announcements at major events and the return of Jobs and his unique talent for unveiling new cutting edge products and you get an interesting confluence of events – and expectations – at Monday’s Apple Worldwide Developers Conference.

These conferences are always abuzz with rumors and speculation about the next big thing that Apple is going to announce which will once again change the technology landscape. When is the next iPad coming? What new features will it include? When will the iPhone 5 be out? What will the next iOS and Mac OS operating systems do? What will be the implications for the devices they run? What is the iCloud and what does it mean?

In the end, those hoping for groundbreaking new products were disappointed. The iPad, iPhone, iPod, MacBook, iMac, Mac Pro, AppleTV, etc. were not on stage. Instead, the hardware devotees had to settle for innovations which were confined to operating systems enhancements and the iCloud – stuff you can’t wait in line for at an Apple store, take home and dazzle your friends and family with.

The irony is that the obsession with hardware misses the big point. New products are critical to Apple’s business, but at best it gets them a first mover advantage that is not guaranteed to endure. The truth is that from a strategic perspective the iCloud is much more important to Apple’s future than any new product, because the iCloud is a platform play that enhances the value of the full range of Apple products and services, including future products and services.

Let me illustrate this with a personal example. I have about a quarter of a century of PC-based computer experience. I probably owned two dozen laptops before I bought my first Apple product, an iPhone. When the iPad 2 came out, however, it was easy for me to expand my stable of Apple products. Now that I am habituated to iTunes and the App Store, it is easier for me to contemplate something like the MacBook. With all of these devices seamlessly sharing data in the background on the iCloud, the data argument for expanding my suite of Apple products becomes that much more compelling. It is a similar story for my wife, who only recently began playing with her first Apple product, the iPad. She has been so completely won over that an iPod will soon follow and then I’m betting an iPhone will be too difficult to ignore. By the time she gets around to replacing her laptop, I’m fairly sure the MacBook Air will win her over – even if she doesn’t even know what it is right now.

I suspect that something similar is in the process of happening across the globe. Many of us who have spent the majority of our careers in a PC-centric corporate environment have often found Apple products to be too much of a compatibility issue to be worth the trouble. They have been relegated to toy status rather than serving as our our central computing devices. The iCloud gives Apple a chance to convert those PC cling-ons not only to exciting Apple products and services, but to a iCloud data world that could be a platform revolution. Device-independent data sharing is just around the corner and Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG) and their ilk better have a strong alternative – and soon.

As for AAPL stock, it is down about 3% since Steve Jobs took the stage on Monday. Savvy investors should be thinking more about Brian Arthur’s Increasing Returns and the New World of Business and less about the timing of new product announcements.




[graphic: Bloomberg for iPad]

Disclosure(s):
long AAPL at time of writing

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Using the iPad for Trading

Unless FedEx (FDX) and Apple (AAPL) have their facts wrong, today the iPad 2 will arrive at my door step.

Since I passed on the iPad 1, this will be my first chance to play with something that I have no idea what I will ultimately end up interacting with. This could turn out to be new computer in a different form factor a toy or anything in between.

While I will try to integrate the iPad into my trading, I am not sure how this is going to happen either. I am not a big fan of using my iPhone for trading unless my environment does not allow any alternatives. As for the iPad, I can imagine it as a complement to my main trading setup, an excellent portable alternative to the iPhone and perhaps filling a bunch of other roles that I am not able to anticipate.

I would love hearing from other traders about how they use the iPad in their trading, whether it means news, charts, quotes, trade execution or whatever. If I get enough responses of note – either here or on Twitter (http://www.twitter.com/VIXandMore) – I will summarize the information in a future post and add in my own experiences as well.

Related posts:

Disclosure(s): none

Friday, September 21, 2007

Reflections on Investing Ten Years Ago

Yesterday I happened to be rummaging through some old files and came across my 1997 tax return. Fortunately, this had nothing to do with any communications with the IRS, but it got me to thinking about how my investing ‘evolution’ has three distinct long-term phases. Specifically, for the first ten years of my investment life, I dabbled in equities with mixed results at best, in much the same manner as Nicholas Darvas describes his early floundering in How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market.

Deciding that the time and effort was not worth the lackluster results, I pushed my savings into mutual funds for the next five years or so, again with fair to middling results. I got a little ornery and started chasing momentum funds like those from PBHG and Van Wagoner, but ultimately concluded that it might be possible for me to try to mimic what they were doing by buying individual stocks on my own.

[As a side note, Gary Pilgrim (PBHG) and Garrett Van Wagoner ended up having more than their share of difficulties, but their approach inspired me to aim higher than beating the S&P 500 by 1.0% point each year.]

To make a long story short(er), the third phase began in 1997 when I decided to go ‘all in’ on a portfolio consisting entirely of internet stocks. While that may not sound all that surprising with the benefit of hindsight, very few investors were buying any internet stocks at the time and frankly there were not that many choices out there. I reasoned (and yes there was some hope involved too) that if most of the technology changes that were being touted at the time came to fruition, it could be a once in a lifetime investment opportunity.

So…I made the type of decision in 1997 that many others would make in 1999 and early 2000. What happened?

In retrospect, I might have done better plowing my money into the Munder NetNet fund (now the Munder Internet fund), but instead, I picked five small and very speculative companies that I thought had a chance to be big home runs if things went my way. The first two companies I started buying up were content plays. If content was going to be king, I wanted to own the king makers. Both of my selections are still alive and kicking: BroadVision (BVSN) had a meteoric rise and then crashed back to earth, Icarus-style; Open Text (OTEX) has led a comparatively uneventful existence, growing slowly and steadily to its current $1.3 billion market cap. My third choice was CyberCash. I expected that someone like PayPal would eventually dominate the electronic payment business with the type of ‘increasing returns to scale’ (described by Brian Arthur, among others) as the industry standard, but alas it was not to be CyberCash, which eventually declared bankruptcy, had its assets sold to VeriSign, with the CyberCash intellectual property eventually ending up at PayPal via an acquisition. In the VoIP communications space, I bought VocalTec, a company that released what I believe was the first internet VoIP program. Now a $16 million also ran (still listed as VOCL, for the record), they even had something called – of all things – the IPhone out back in 1995. Sometimes you can recognize the pioneers by the arrows sticking out of their back... For whatever reason, I felt most confident in the fifth ‘internet stock’ I started buying. Check Point (CHKP) has been a leader in firewall and related security products in the ten years since I first started buying the stock. An Israeli company like VocalTec (for the record, Open Text is Canadian; BVSN was the only Silicon Valley company, as CYCH was headquartered in the Virginia suburbs, just outside of Washington D.C.), Check Point has grown to become a $5.4 billion company, but has always operated in the long shadow of a strong Cisco competitive threat, with this 1998 Check Point press release typical of that battle that has been fought.

So enough of the nostalgia. For those who may be interested, I did hold BVSN all the way to the 2000 top – and then some of the way down. I was out of the other four within a year. In retrospect, CHKP and OTEX turned out to be solid if unspectacular investments; CYCH and VOCL were the two dogs.

I’m not sure exactly what the lesson is here, if any. In 1998 I went on to pick a lot of winners in the internet space – and a lot of dogs. I have always been patient enough to let my winners run, but over the years I have continued to improve my ability to cut my losses quickly and protect my profits for those trades that make a big U-turn. If I had been fortunate enough to have read the likes of When to Sell, written by Justin Mamis in 1977, and It’s When You Sell that Counts, a 1991 classic from Donald Cassidy, I’m sure those early internet years would have been considerably more profitable. In the long run, each individual learning curve has different hurdles and a different timetable. The trick is to get a little smarter every day, even if your portfolio does not always reflect all newly acquired wisdom.

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