VXTYN Measures Volatility in U.S. Treasuries and Potential Spillover Effect

Recently I have been highlighting some non-traditional measures of volatility and risk in the financial markets, including VXEEM (CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index); DXJ (WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund); and DBV (PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund). Part of my intent in focusing some attention on these largely under-the-radar indices and ETPs is to get more investors to think about risk more broadly across geographies and asset classes.

One asset class that should absolutely be watched closely by even those stubbornly equity-centric investors (and I know you are out there in larger numbers than you care to admit) is U.S. Treasuries. Of course U.S. Treasuries come in quite a few flavors, but the most important is probably the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note. In a display of impeccable timing, last month the CBOE and the CFE teamed up to launch a new volatility index based on this security: CBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index (VXTYN).

In the chart below, I show the path of VXTYN and the SPX going back to January 10, 2013, which is the beginning of the historical data for VXTYN provided by the CBOE. Note that VXTYN only began rising in May and when hit has made a substantial move up, that has preceded a decline in stocks.

[source(s): CBOE, Yahoo, VIX and More]

Just for fun, I am also including a chart that shows a 21-day rolling average of the correlation between VXTYN and the SPX. Here the relationship between the swings in correlation and subsequent moves in stocks may be easier to visualize. With less than months of historical data to draw on, I would caution against jumping to conclusions regarding correlation and causation, but at the very least I thought this graphic might provide some food for thought.

[source(s): CBOE, Yahoo, VIX and More]

Last but not least: did you know there are ETPs for placing bets on whether the Treasury yield curve will get steeper or flatter? I highlighted these products back in 2010 in Treasury Yield Curve ETNs and Volatility; they are known formally as the iPath US Treasury Steepener ETN (STPP) and the iPath US Treasury Flattener ETN (FLAT).

Related posts:

• VXEEM as a Measure of Emerging Markets Volatility and Risk
• Using DXJ to Monitor Development in Japanese Equities, Currency and Risk
• The Currency Carry Trade, DBV and Risk
• Chart of the Week: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yields from 1990
• Treasury Yield Curve ETNs and Volatility
• Chart of the Week: Ratio of VIX to Yield on 3-Month T-Bills
• Recent Developments in Gold and Gold Volatility
• EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) at Lowest Level Since March 2008, Diverges from VIX
• Chart of the Week: Crude Oil and Volatility
• The Risk Library
• A Conceptual Framework for Volatility Events
• Forces Acting on the VIX
• St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index

Disclosure(s): long DXJ at time of writing; the CBOE is an advertiser on VIX and More

The Currency Carry Trade, DBV and Risk

Anyone who has been active in the financial markets during the past five years knows that there are many types of risk, many ways to think about and measure risk, and invariably some risks lurking around the next corner that many of us have never bothered to contemplate. Most investors tend to focus their attention on equities and therefore have a tendency to think in terms of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and use that number to evaluate the relative level of risk, uncertainty or perhaps fear in the markets. That being said, during the past few years, almost everyone has become conversant in such topics as credit default swaps, the TED spread, the LIBOR-OIS spread, bank capital ratios and a whole host of concepts and statistics which were not on their radar in 2007.

For a more holistic approach to evaluating risk, there is always the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index, which is one example of an attempt to aggregate a variety of risk factors (18 in all) related to economic and financial matters into a single risk index.

One aspect of market risk that many investors continue to struggle with is the currency carry trade. If the daily movements of the dollar are relatively unimportant for those interested in buying and selling stocks that are primarily based in the U.S., then it is relatively easy for most investors to conclude that the gyrations of the Japanese yen (FXY) or Australian dollar (FXA) can be dismissed as much less important than those of the dollar. Unfortunately, this is not always the case. It turns out that many investors, particularly large institutional ones, have an appetite for the currency carry trade, in which one borrows in a currency where interest rates are low and uses the proceeds to buy assets in a currency where interest rates are higher. With Japan’s central bank targeting interest rates of 0.1% and the Reserve Bank of Australia recently cutting its base rate to 2.75%, the carry trade is structured as an interest rate differential trade in which an investor can borrow in yen and then buy Australian bonds, with profitability determined by the net interest rate differential plus or minus any fluctuation in the exchange rate.

Naturally some more aggressive investors prefer to use the yen as a funding currency for the purchase of assets other than bonds, including U.S. stocks. The problem for investors in U.S. stocks is that when the yen appreciates sharply – as it did on Monday and Thursday of last week, as well as during today’s session – traders with short yen positions who are victimized by a short squeeze will be subject to margin calls and/or forced liquidations, which means that not only are they covering their short yen positions, but they are also selling any long positions in U.S. equities as both legs are unwound. For this reason, when the yen carry trade is in favor, U.S. equities tend to move in the opposite direction of the yen. Traders can monitor the strength of the yen by following the USD/JPY currency cross or the Japanese yen ETF, FXY.

An alternative to focusing entirely on the yen is to monitor the PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (DBV), which, as PowerShares indicates, “is composed of currency futures contracts on certain G10 currencies and is designed to exploit the trend that currencies associated with relatively high interest rates, on average, tend to rise in value relative to currencies associated with relatively low interest rates. The G10 currency universe from which the Index selects currently includes U.S. dollars, euros, Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, Swiss francs, British pounds, Australian dollars, New Zealand dollars, Norwegian krone and Swedish krona.”

In other words, DBV is a carry trade ETF that is short three currencies and long three currencies at all times, updating these holdings on a quarterly basis. The ETF is currently short the Swiss franc, the euro and the yen, with long positions in the Australian dollar, the Norwegian krone and the New Zealand dollar.

As the chart below shows, DBV has been tracking the S&P 500 index quite closely for most of the past year, but that relationship has recently broken down as DBV has plummeted while the SPX has experienced only a mild pullback. Going forward, investors should strongly consider keeping an eye on the USD/JPY cross, the FXY ETF (which is optionable) and also DBV, which provides a much broader picture of the overall carry trade – and can also serve as a proxy for the risk this trade can pose to stocks.

[In addition to the products referenced above, note that there is a currency carry trade ETF that is similar to DBV, the iPath Optimized Currency Carry ETN (ICI), but this product has considerably less liquidity.]

[source(s): StockCharts.com]

Related posts:

• Suppressing Volatility and the Black Swan of Cairo
• Thinking About Volatility
• The Credit Default Swap Canary
• The Risk Library
• A Conceptual Framework for Volatility Events
• Forces Acting on the VIX
• The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index and Market Risk
• VIX and St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index Moving in Concert
• Zooming in on the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index
• St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index

Disclosure(s): none