Friday, October 1, 2010

Economic Data Trends Improving

Those who were looking for some sort of unambiguously bullish number from this morning’s ISM manufacturing survey may have been disappointed, but as the chart below shows, economic data relative to expectations have taken on a much more bullish tone since the end of August.  There was some evidence of a positive trend in the data when I last posted this chart on September 13th in Chart of the Week: Updated Economic Trend Data. At that time, however, the trend was a weak one, leading me to conclude:

"While there is some evidence that the downtrend in economic data may have been broken, there is at best marginal evidence to support the idea of a bullish uptrend in the data."
Since that time, there has been a notable uptick in the data – at least relative to consensus estimates – in manufacturing, housing/construction and in the consumer sector.

Of course until the increase in economic activity is reflected in the nonfarm payrolls reports next Friday or in subsequent months, any sort of ‘improvement’ is going to look more like treading water than genuine progress.

Also of note: next Friday is the final nonfarm payrolls report before the mid-term elections.

Related posts:


Disclosure(s): none

blog comments powered by Disqus
DISCLAIMER: "VIX®" is a trademark of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated is not affiliated with this website or this website's owner's or operators. CBOE assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness or any other aspect of any content posted on this website by its operator or any third party. All content on this site is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended as advice to buy or sell any securities. Stocks are difficult to trade; options are even harder. When it comes to VIX derivatives, don't fall into the trap of thinking that just because you can ride a horse, you can ride an alligator. Please do your own homework and accept full responsibility for any investment decisions you make. No content on this site can be used for commercial purposes without the prior written permission of the author. Copyright © 2007-2013 Bill Luby. All rights reserved.
 
Web Analytics