Thursday, October 28, 2010

More Upticks in Economic Data vs. Expectations

Today was the first week since the end of August that both the initial claims and continuing claims for unemployment were lower than consensus expectations.

While one week of noisy data should not substantially embolden the bulls, there has been a noticeable uptick in positive reports since the beginning of September – one that just so happens to coincide with the upturn in stocks.

I last updated the chart below at the beginning of the month and since that time, the pattern of positive surprises has continued. Note that housing and construction continue to provide the most consistent positive surprises, while the consumer appears to have a turned a corner at the end of August, giving a boost to stocks.

If the data are painting any sort of discernable picture, from my perspective the canvas looks like a story of slow but steady improvement – and more slow than steady at this stage.

Related posts:


Disclosure(s): none

blog comments powered by Disqus
DISCLAIMER: "VIX®" is a trademark of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated is not affiliated with this website or this website's owner's or operators. CBOE assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness or any other aspect of any content posted on this website by its operator or any third party. All content on this site is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended as advice to buy or sell any securities. Stocks are difficult to trade; options are even harder. When it comes to VIX derivatives, don't fall into the trap of thinking that just because you can ride a horse, you can ride an alligator. Please do your own homework and accept full responsibility for any investment decisions you make. No content on this site can be used for commercial purposes without the prior written permission of the author. Copyright © 2007-2013 Bill Luby. All rights reserved.
 
Web Analytics