A little over a month ago, in Trends in Economic Data Relative to Expectations, I first posted a slightly different version of the chart below on the blog. The chart turned out to be a surprise hit, so this time around I am updating the data (a proprietary methodology in which I evaluate the performance of key economic data releases relative to consensus expectations) as well as adding the S&P 500 index as a beige area graphic.
In terms of takeaways, deteriorating employment and consumer data continue to drag down the economic recovery. Manufacturing, which was an area of strength early in the year, has more recently become a source of weakness. In terms of strength, I continue to be surprised that the aggregated construction and housing numbers are better than consensus estimates.
For additional details on the data included in each grouping, refer to the link above.
For more on related subjects, readers are encouraged to check out:
- Trends in Economic Data Relative to Expectations
- Nonfarm Payrolls and Backsliding
- Fundamentals and the Recovery