Monday, April 14, 2008

VIX Back Above 10 Day SMA; VWSI at Zero

Last week's bearish action in the equity markets moved the VIX back over its 10 day simple moving average for the first time in three weeks. As the markets enter a pivotal earnings week, it will be interesting to watch the VIX to see how damaging any earnings surprises turn out to be -- or how much bad news has already been discounted.

The VIX Weekly Sentiment Index (VWSI) is back at zero, down from +3 the previous week, meaning that the volatility forecast for the next 1-2 weeks is neutral, with a roughly equal probability of a spike in volatility or a continuation of the move down.

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