Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Another Way to Play Short EUR/USD: Travel!

There are many ways to translate an opinion about the financial markets into a particular trade. Recently, I decided to act upon my belief that the euro would weaken against the dollar by booking a couple of weeks in Europe. The trader/VIXologist itinerary would have probably run something like Ireland > Portugal > Greece > Spain > Italy, but instead I elected to steer to the north, vising the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany and the Czech Republic.

For the first time in many moons, parliamentary votes, etc., the markets were reasonably well behaved during my vacation and the VIX didn’t even make it into the 30s.

As someone who spends a great deal of time nine time zones away from the events behind the European headlines, I was somewhat surprised to see the relative calmness and lack of concern in the people I spoke with about the European sovereign debt crisis. This is not to say that the consensus was that the most difficult phases of the crisis were in the rear-view mirror, only that in due time, all would be sorted out and life would go on in a manner similar to the way it was prior to 2008.

That being said, I was surprised to see that in the sculptures above the Gate of Giants, which forms the entrance to Prague Castle, one forward-thinking artist had captured the essence of the discussions between the Troika and the Greek government…

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[photo: Gate of Giants, Prague Castle]

Disclosure(s): long VIX at time of writing

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