Thursday, June 11, 2009

Roubini and the VIX

Call me crazy, but lately I have been pondering the sudden disappearance of Nouriel Roubini from the media scene. You could probably add the likes of Meredith Whitney and others to the list of media sensations who rose to fame as a result of successful predictions about the financial crisis and have now been displaced by a different set of pundits who are talking about subjects like green shoots, TARP repayment, and the coming upturn in jobs and housing.

While Roubini’s media star may be setting, the man himself is not slowing down – nor is he backing away from his bearish leaning. Today Roubini is out with Latvia’s Currency Crisis Is a Rerun of Argentina’s and earlier in the week the issue was Green Shoots or Yellow Weeds?

So as I watch the S&P 500 index move above 950, I am thinking about complacency and the possibility of a ‘rebound bubble’ of sorts.

I checked with Google Trends to see what has happened to interest in Roubini and I was not surprised at all to see a chart that resembled that of the VIX. In fact, when I combined the Roubini Google Trends results with the VIX in the graphic below, I was interested to see that interest in Roubini seemed to be a leading indicator of sorts with respect to volatility.

Of course volatility looks as if it may have a stake driven through its heart today, but I am very skeptical that the VIX will be able to drop much below the current 27 level for at least the remainder of the month.

[graphic: VIXandMore]

Disclosure: Long VIX at time of writing.

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The SPX 500 index graph does look like it will rebound above 950 and to its fifty percent retracement level of 1000 from its 667 early March low. The Vix index has slowly decreased from just above fifty since early March and appears to be slowing descending to its strong support level near twenty. It will be interesting to see if the VIX index does stay above twenty-seven during the month of June. Your postings continue to be excellent and enjoyable to review.

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