For the last three weeks, I have been impressed by the confidence and resolve shown by the bulls as they have consistently used pullbacks to flood the market with new long positions. Perhaps algorithms have no fear…
More recently, however, as the bull leg has stalled around the SPX 900 mark, I have found myself thinking about the lack of ‘proper’ leadership. Yesterday and today, the rallies have been led by commodities, with gold and energy equities the top performers.
At the same time, the three sectors I think are most critical to the recovery, my so-called ‘indicator species’ sectors (financials, homebuilders and consumer discretionary stocks), have been unable to get out of the red today.
I am not sure where the leadership will come from that will eventually push the SPX back over 1000. Today large cap technology names First Solar (FSLR), Apple (AAPL), Dell (DELL), Research in Motion (RIMM), eBay (EBAY) and Intel (INTC) are all strong performers. Frankly, I would expect technology to play a strong role in the next big leg up, but leadership may come from a number of other sectors.
There are few guarantees in the stock market, but I can guarantee that gold and energy are not going to pull the SPX up over the 1000 mark and leave financials (XLF), homebuilders (XHB), and consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) behind.