Friday, October 10, 2008

OHFDEX One Year Later

One year ago, in “From Overripe to Vulnerable?” I introduced something I called the OHFdex or listing of Overripe High Fliers, along with 14 CandleGlance charts from StockCharts.com for the highest fliers.

Needless to say, the picture one year later is an ugly one.

Not only were these stocks overripe and vulnerable a year ago, but they were ripe for decimation. CROCS (CROX) is down over 97% in a year, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is down 90%, and both DryShips (DRYS) and VMware (VMW) are down more than 80%. All told, 11 of the 14 former high fliers are down 50% or more. The mean decline was 67.7% and the median decline was 69.3%. The best performer among the group was Baidu (BIDU), the Chinese search engine company, which has lost 36% while the Chinese markets have fallen 57%.

I have also included one year charts (once again courtesy of StockCharts.com) for all 14 members of the OHFdex below, with a 20 day SMA in blue and a 50 day SMA in red:

[source: StockCharts]

Sifting among the rubble of today’s meltdown, it looks as if it is about time to create a new list of oversold stocks that can prosper over the course of the next year.

1 comments:

www.donfishback.com/blog said...

"it looks as if it is about time to create a new list of oversold stocks that can prosper over the course of the next year."

I want that list!!

-- Don Fishback

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