Friday, October 10, 2008

Two More VIX Records

Once again, the VIX is in the record books, with two new highs:

  • new closing high: 69.95
  • new intra-day high: 76.94

Of course, today is also the first time the VIX traded over 70.

In other volatility index news, the VXO (CBOE S&P 100 Volatility Index) closed at 86.14, almost exactly half of the all-time record high of 172.79 from October 20, 1987. The VXO had an intra-day high of 103.18, marking the first time the 'original VIX' has been over the 100 mark since 1987.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

the question is, what happens after volatility begins to revert.

is a snap back rally automatic, or is it choppy. does volume dry up. do the market go from a momentum trading market environment to extremely choppy and nearly untradable?

i'm guessing apathy sets in, and both the bulls and the bears get frustrated.

joe5555 said...

See Item #8 on VIX

http://tinyurl.com/4yqstd


Perhaps 30% rally is due in 3 mths

Andrew Abraham said...

We have been discussing the high vix readings on myinvestorsplace.com ...members have stated in theory ...this should be a sign of a bottom...but can't we just waterfall? Please tell us your opinion...thank you in advance...

Bill Luby said...

Hi Andrew,

The high readings suggests that a bottom is near, but not necessarily in as of Friday. I would be more confident if we could get at least one day of the VIX closing below the previous day's close or perhaps even just closing below the same day's open. Better yet would be a VIX below the previous day's low.

The VIX is more of a temperature gauge than a diagnostic at this stage and it needs to see fear and panic turn the corner. At one point on Friday the SPX was up and the VIX was still up over 10% for the day.

My best guess is that the next bottom is likely to be an intermediate-term bottom, but not necessarily the long-term bottom everyone is hoping for.

The (LT) bottom will require some positive macroeconomic news, a thawing of the credit markets, some signs of stability (i.e., slow down in hedge fund deleveraging) and an uptick in investor confidence. Until then, I expect to see an elevated VIX -- though not necessarily one that holds current levels.

I'll have a lot to say about all this and more next week.

Cheers,

-Bill

Anonymous said...

There's an interesting take on historical vs. current market conditions in this WSJ article here. Some are saying the Dow could overshoot down to 4000 before it's done because some buy and hold LT investors haven't "capitulated" yet.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122368241652024977.html

Market Warnings said...

Market has bottomed as predicted last on night of Thursday-Friday by financialtraders blog ( http://www.financialtraders.blog...s.blogspot.com/ ) and confirmed by market on Friday

Reasons why and evidence is at:

http://financialtraders.blogspot.com/2008/10/stock-market-crash-october-2008-bottom.html

http://financialtraders.blogspot.com/2008/10/stock-market-crash-2008-ended-today.html

Anonymous said...

The market has not bottomed. There has been zero evidence that selling has abated and that buying has begun. So far the sellers have the upper hand in a huge way. You will likely get a 2 to 5 day rally but no confident move up until there is evidence that the bottom is in, so take a break.

Let the idiots try to predict a bottom based on VIX and oversold indicators, which are totally worthless in this kind of market. The VIX would be at all time highs and indicators would be oversold in a nuclear attack as well, would you buy in then?

There are a lot of well known companies open for business that are silent about being bankrupt.

It’s all about Retained Earnings and not Borrowed Money. Stupid is as stupid does.

Jacob said...

nice article

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