Friday, October 24, 2008

Last 90 Minutes Will Be Critical

Anything less than a strong rally will put a 'Bleak Monday' into play

16 comments:

iv said...

I think you really mean BLACK MONDAY...lol

Anonymous said...

Why? Please illuminate.

Bill Luby said...

Lots of reasons why, but starting with setting the tone for Asia and Europe on Monday, with a lot of headline risk to boot, Friday to Monday follow-through patterns, etc.

The cycle eventually has to be broken, but the timing is very much up in the air.

Good trading,

-Bill

Anonymous said...

Thanks!

Eric said...

Does down 250 from being down 500 suggest a "strong" close?

Bill Luby said...

I'd say that's borderline, Eric, given the action in the second to last hour.

I'd be much more impressed by an index that closed close to the day's high or at least above the high made at the beginning of the last hour.

Eric said...

Getting close, down 128 now.

Luther S. Ott II said...

Bill, The close down around 325 screams short, no? Right in the middle of the days range. I hope its Monday...time we get it over with. At least with this action we have a chance to begin the repair job.

What do you think?

Luther

Bill Luby said...

I still thought it was borderline with about 7 minutes to go, but those last 7 minutes were quite bearish.

The markets clearly could have crashed either yesterday or today -- yet they didn't.

Let's see what sort of news percolates to the surface over the weekend before we jump to conclusions.

Cheers,

-Bill

Anonymous said...

test msg

Eric said...

Volatility is amazing. This is mostly a curiosity for me as I have opened an SSO position and am shorting calls against it. Hefty premiums to ride out the volatility.

Bruce said...

If the critical support levels for the S&P are not breached, then this type of volatitlty is an unwind which may suplant an all out crash. Yet this may carry on for months.

Institutions are getting out but not utterly destroying the market in doing so by observing technical levels.

The end of day upticks are bait for tomorrows buyers.

I'm not saying "conspiracy" but the observance of TA rules and thresholds by major players seems to be the case here.

Anonymous said...

I think if nothing happens, we'll rally next week. Maybe a dip on Monday morning, then rally.
People are scared to hold any positions over the weekend.
Did the last 11% rally happen on Monday?
I'll take the opposite view and be brave this time. We'll have another 10+% rally in the near future.Hopefully it's not after another crash!


Simpletrade

Anonymous said...

interesting to note that while the financials took another beating, the semiconductor index was flat.

I think that indicates today's downtrend was not broad based.

Semis often lead the Nasdaq (which often leads the market)

Marc said...

and the Nasdaq dropped the least of the three averages. Usually it takes the worst of beatings.

Anonymous said...

The S&P 500 futures are down 31 points this morning. It should be interesting to see if the cash VIX index spikes to another intra-day and/or closing high today. Will this be the Black Monday that some people have outlined on recent blog posts? The New Home Sales numbers at 10 AM EST may also negatively effect the markets. This should be an interesting week for traders as the U.S. markets are close to their 2008 lows, numerous important economic numbers are being released and the FOMC makes a decision about interest rates.

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