Yesterday, I was pleased to once again have an opportunity to pen a guest column for Barron’s, pinch hitting for Steve Sears in his The Striking Price column with How to Play a Volatility Spike. If my math is correct, this is the nineteenth time I have been a guest columnist in this fashion. I always try to keep my subject matter linked to current events, but the irony is that when the signal comes to grab my bat and make my way to the on-deck circle, invariably the markets are hit with a bout of volatility. The result is that as a “volatility guy” I often end up talking about what to do in an environment of elevated volatility, as was the case in Seizing Opportunity from Stock Market Volatility, Be Greedy While Others Are Fearful, Calm Down and Exploit Others’ Anxieties and There’s Opportunity in Uncertainty.
My thesis in the Barron’s article is fairly simple and should not come as a surprise to those who have been paying attention to what I have been saying in this space over the course of the past decade: VIX spikes are typically a gift from the mean reversion gods. The trick, of course, is in the timing of the mean reversion – and perhaps whether to bother to make the distinction between mean reversion and median reversion.
In the chart below, one can see VIX data going back to 1990, with the mean of 19.71 added as a dotted red line. Even a quick glimpse at the graphic reveals just how difficult it is for an elevated VIX to stay elevated, regardless of the cause.
[source(s): StockCharts.com, VIX and More]
The Barron’s article talks about some trading opportunities that arise from VIX spikes and includes a bull put spread trade idea involving QQQ.
I have remarked on a number of occasions in the past that whenever Steve Sears reaches out to me to pen a guest column, inevitably some invisible market force snaps to attention and arranges for a volatility spike. Either Steve has some amazing insight into the future of volatility (not unthinkable for a guy who was a driving force behind the creation of the ISEE Index) or some other unseen forces are toying with me. If this happens one more time I am going to start to wonder if I have an obligation to publicly disclose future column requests…
In the meantime, tune out as much of the election hysteria as you can and consider all the gifts from the mean reversion gods that looked too risky to accept at the time.
- Last Two Days Are #5 and #6 One-Day VIX Spikes in History
- Today’s 34% VIX Spike and What to Expect Going Forward
- 2014 Had Third Highest Number of 20% VIX Spikes
- All-Time VIX Spike #11 (and a treasure trove of VIX spike data)
- The Biggest VIX Spike Ever: A Retrospective
- VIX Sets Some New Records, Suggesting Volatility Near Peak
- Highest Intraday VIX Readings
- Short-Term and Long-Term Implications of the 30% VIX Spike
- VIX Spike of 35% in Four Days Is Short-Term Buy Signal
- VIX Approaches Pre-2008 Record Highs
- VIX Median Reversion and Five-Year Moving Averages
- Volatility During Crises
- Forces Acting on the VIX
- A Conceptual Framework for Volatility Events
- How to Play a Volatility Spike (November 5, 2016)
- Playing Volatile Oil Prices (March 12, 2016)
- The Case Against High Stock-Market Volatility in 2016 (January 2, 2016)
- Seizing Opportunity from Stock Market Volatility (July 11, 2015)
- How to Ride an Aging Bull (November 29, 2014)
- Investors' Best Options in a ‘No Fear’ Market (July 2, 2014)
- Low Volatility: How to Profit from a Quiet VIX (May 22, 2014)
- Emerging Market Stocks: Have They Hit Bottom? (March 28, 2014)
- How to Spot Risk Early (July 16, 2013)
- How to Insure Your Stock Portfolio (April 18, 2013)
- The Case for Options Trading (January 2, 2013)
- Calm Down and Exploit Others’ Anxieties (November 14, 2012)
- How to Trade Options Around Volatile Events (July 10, 2012)
- Be Greedy While Others Are Fearful (May 3, 2012)
- Ways to Turn Volatility into an Asset Class (January 12, 2011)
- There’s Opportunity in Uncertainty (November 18, 2010)
- Will Market Volatility Return to Crisis Levels? (September 15, 2010)
- The Perils of Predicting Volatility (May 20, 2010)
- Take a Longer View on Volatility (July 2, 2009)
Disclosure(s): the CBOE is an advertiser on VIX and More