Thursday, February 23, 2012

TVIX Premium Spikes to 13%

A little more than two hours into today’s regular trading session, the premium in TVIX is has spiked to 13.5% above its intraday indicative value.

The graphic below shows the difference between TVIX and TVIX.IV over the course of the past three trading sessions, using 5-minute bars and reflecting the extended hours trading sessions in the grayed-out blocks.

At this juncture, longs are likely betting that the prospect of a short squeeze, perhaps in combination with a VIX spike, could land them some significant windfall profits. Shorts, on the other hand, are assuming that it is just a matter of time before Credit Suisse (CS) reopens the creation units window for TVIX, which should restore the supply-demand equilibrium and dissolve the 13% premium in the form of a different type of windfall profit.

[It is generally my policy not to comment on individual holdings other than to note them in the disclosure section below, but suffice it to say that as the TVIX premium increases, I find it increasingly difficult to make the bull case in terms of anticipating an additional expansion of that premium.]

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[source(s): thinkorswim/TD Ameritrade]

Disclosure(s): short TVIX at time of writing

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