Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Bernanke and Moody's May Have Accelerated Formation of Bottom

As I type this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 200 and the VIX has spiked to 30.79, largely as a result of prepared remarks by Ben Bernanke and a downgrade by Moody's of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

As a result of these two developments, some capitulation activity has been accelerated and the likelihood of an intermediate bottom forming today, tomorrow or Thursday is now over 95%.

10 comments:

StockRake said...

I'm with ya on that.

Jeff Pietsch CFA, Esq said...

VXN:VIX 1.14 anyone? We are now at the January-low levels on this interesting measure (say 1.138).

Anonymous said...

Pardon if you've spelled it out elsewhere and I've missed it, but how have you calculated this 95% probability?

CB

Jeff Pietsch CFA, Esq said...

Anon, I read that as an expert's off-the-cuff statement. However, if you were to look at the distribution of Vix stretches of this magnitude, you'd probably find we are near that statistical level of standard deviations, fat tails included. I just happened to have this page still open, of course this is Bill's question to answer.

Bill Luby said...

Anon,

I have not posted the details anywhere, but this is based on a number of indicators I use, including the VIX:VXV,and two proprietary sentiment indicators that I make available only to newsletter subscribers.

The 95% is indeed off the cuff. I was originally thinking 90% Thursday-Monday, but today's events have pushed the timetable up a little.

Cheers and good trading,

-Bill

Anonymous said...

Thanks to both of you.

CB

gaius marius said...

i'm with you too on this one. participation as measured by the pct. of issues trading at new lows, as well as same trading over short-term moving averages, have been improving for a couple weeks. usually prelude to a bounce, and with volatility measures sharpening i'd imagine a healthy bounce materializing here.

if it doesn't, god help us!

Bill Luby said...

I just hope God isn't short...

gaius marius said...

lol -- one wonders! certainly the closing action was pretty dismal today. the market seems to throw just enough rally in there to quell anxiety spikes to prevent a blowout close but grind lower anyway. i'm half-certain my new longs will be thrown under the bus tomorrow at the open....

Anonymous said...

The VIX cash index sharply decreased from a level of about 30.8 to todays closing level of 25.1, a 18.5% decrease in less than two trading days. The VIX level of 30.8 that corresponded to the DJIA 2008 trading low of 10828 may be the turnaround levels for a short-term bullish rally. Crude oil decreasing almost eleven dollars in two days also had a bullish impact on the U.S. stock markets. The DJIA, S&P 500 index and QQQQ indexes all increased by about 2.5% today and the XLF, XBD and XAL indexes skyrocked by 12.4%, 13.1% and 18.1% today. These are the largest percentage increases in these indexes since the major U.S. stock markets started their bearish leg down on May nineteenth.

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