Truthfully, I have not surveyed our ursine friends this morning, so I really have no idea if they are emboldened by the low CBOE equity put to call ratio (CPCE), but they should be.
My preferred way of looking at the equity put to call ratio involves using an exponential 10 day moving average (EMA) as a smoothing factor. The 10 day EMA generates the dotted blue line in the chart below, which is now at a one month low, meaning that bullish investors are now likely to be speculating more aggressively with calls and are less concerned about managing risk with put protection. The chart shows that prior lows in August, September, October and January all preceded meaningful pullbacks. The history of put to call extremes suggests that another pullback is now in the offing.
Whether the bears are truly emboldened or even bother watching put to call ratios, this looks like an excellent time for longs to take some profits and go enjoy the vernal equinox.
For more on related subjects, readers are encouraged to check out:
- Put to Call Ratio and the Probability of a Downturn
- Put to Call Ratios and Volatility Predictions
- Put to Call Data at Extreme Levels
- CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio Poised to Print Warning
- Chart of the Week: Total Put to Call Ratio