Friday, August 1, 2008

Intrade 2009 Recession Prediction Contract

Since I have not seen it mentioned anywhere else, I thought I should point out that Intade.com, the prediction market site, now has a contract covering whether or not the United States will go into a recession at any time during 2009. While the contract currently suggests a greater than 50% probability that the U.S. will slip into a recession in 2009, I find it interesting that the contract price has been slipping over the past 2-3 weeks, suggesting that the likelihood of a recession next year is declining.

For more on Intrade and prediction markets, see my February post, Intrade Prediction Markets as a Sentiment Indicator.

3 comments:

SBVOR said...

I'm predicting (here, for the first time) a recession in 2010.

Meantime, the data say:
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No recession in 2008.
===========================

GS751 said...

Intrade is just interesting to watch in general.

Anonymous said...

I feel the world economy is already in a recession and has been for since at least last October. Look at the stock charts for China (down 50% from the high); India as well.

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