Friday, August 1, 2008

Intrade 2009 Recession Prediction Contract

Since I have not seen it mentioned anywhere else, I thought I should point out that Intade.com, the prediction market site, now has a contract covering whether or not the United States will go into a recession at any time during 2009. While the contract currently suggests a greater than 50% probability that the U.S. will slip into a recession in 2009, I find it interesting that the contract price has been slipping over the past 2-3 weeks, suggesting that the likelihood of a recession next year is declining.

For more on Intrade and prediction markets, see my February post, Intrade Prediction Markets as a Sentiment Indicator.

3 comments:

SBVOR said...

I'm predicting (here, for the first time) a recession in 2010.

Meantime, the data say:
===========================
No recession in 2008.
===========================

GS751 said...

Intrade is just interesting to watch in general.

Anonymous said...

I feel the world economy is already in a recession and has been for since at least last October. Look at the stock charts for China (down 50% from the high); India as well.

DISCLAIMER: "VIX®" is a trademark of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated is not affiliated with this website or this website's owner's or operators. CBOE assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness or any other aspect of any content posted on this website by its operator or any third party. All content on this site is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended as advice to buy or sell any securities. Stocks are difficult to trade; options are even harder. When it comes to VIX derivatives, don't fall into the trap of thinking that just because you can ride a horse, you can ride an alligator. Please do your own homework and accept full responsibility for any investment decisions you make. No content on this site can be used for commercial purposes without the prior written permission of the author. Copyright © 2007-2023 Bill Luby. All rights reserved.
 
Web Analytics