Wednesday, August 1, 2007

VIX (26.04) at 164% of 50 day SMA

This is not uncharted waters, but it is close.

If today is not a top in the VIX, I'd be shocked if the top is not in by the end of the week.

3 comments:

Malcolm said...

Stockcharts gives a P&F target of 30.

Anonymous said...

If the vix can't get below 15 does that imply that this is the all new bear market ?

Bill Luby said...

Malcolm,

I'm not sure P&F charts are a good choice for the VIX (I'm thinking of the bias toward mean reversion rather than trending) but then again, I'm far from being a P&F expert.


Anon,

I suspect we could resume a bull market with a VIX in the 20s (like we had in the late 90s,) but as the VIX goes up -- and stays up -- the odds of bull market go down.

You might want to check out "The Return of the Absolute VIX" for more information.

Cheers,

-Bill

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