Birthday Party?

As we all know, the markets have a talent for making big U-turns at the most inconvenient times. For some, this means a 4% sell off just when you decided to margin some high flying internet stocks. For me, this means having a birthday and attempting a birthday celebration on the day when the subject of your blog makes an unprecedented 64% move. Yesterday someone asked me what I wanted for my birthday and I almost blurted out “A 20% spike in the VIX, of course,” but I bit my tongue and said something much less memorable. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.

Oh well, I guess it could have been worse. I could have been the guy who bought 63,000 April 11 VIX puts. Heck, here in Northern California, you can get a fairly decent condo for what he (or she) just threw away.

Back to the real world…I’ve been away from my computer for the nine hours or so since the markets have closed. I will do my best in the next hour or two to make some sense out of the debris left behind from today's seismic shock and post some thoughts here later. In the interim, readers looking to get a sense of my thought process might want to check out some of the following archived but relevant posts (as an aside, I too am not a fan of bands that make a live album or greatest hits collection after only one record or two, but that won’t stop me from doing essentially the same thing):

• VIX Spikes While Markets Sell Off: Quick Thoughts

• One Day 30% (!) Spikes in the VIX

• One Day 20% Spikes in the VIX

• VIX Overreaction?

• The VIX and 3% SPX Drops

• What to Expect from a VIX Spike

• A Challenge to Two Things You Think You Know About the VIX

• The SPX:VIX Relationship

• The Shape of Capitulation in the VIX?

• Waiting for Godot

• What My Dog Can Tell Us About Volatility

• On the Nature of Fear

• VIX and More: An Introduction (original acoustic version)