Rally Leaves Spanish Banks Behind

Stocks are firing on all cylinders today, with the S&P 500 index up more than 1.4% as I type this and most heat maps showing nothing but various shades of green. Even European stocks are strong today. With Europe’s exchanges closed for the weekend, the European country ETFs have followed the U.S. markets higher, though Spain’ ETF (EWP) has been a laggard.

Look at the ADRs for Spain’s banks, however, and it appears that the banks are not participating in today’s rally. Spain’s largest bank, Banco Santander (ticker SAN, previously STD until one month ago today) had managed a gain of just 0.03 today, while the country’s #2 bank, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), is off 0.04.

In short, it appears that no matter what the U.S. markets do or the euro zone leaders say or do, stocks for these Spanish banks continue to act as if they are swimming in concrete shoes.

The chart below shows the price action in BBVA since the beginning of 2011, as well as a study on top of the main chart that tracks the performance of BBVA relative to SPY for the same period. In the ratio chart study, I have thrown a 200-day moving average of BBVA:SPY (solid blue line) to underscore that not only has the trend been consistently down, but the ratio has not even come close to trading over its 200-day moving average at any point in the past 1 ½ years.

For the record, the chart for SAN and the SAN:SPY ratio is equally ugly and a similar chart of EWP:SPY is no better than a chart of the Spanish banks.

It remains to be see how the situation with Spain and its banks will be resolved, but until there is some sort of resolution on the horizon, I would to continue to expect to see considerable activity in the puts of SAN and BBVA.

Related posts:

• Chart of the Week: As Goes Spain…
• Why Not Point Hedges?
• Banco Santander Finally Tackles One Huge Problem: Its Ticker
• Euro Volatility and Risk
• Chart of the Week: VSTOXX, VIX and the Risk of Global Contagion
• The Hollande Discount
• Chart of the Week: European Stocks Holding Up Well
• Recent Performance Divergence in European ETFs
• Where and When Will the Euro Bottom?
• Greece, Spain and the Pulse of European Anxiety
• Spain Rallies

[source(s): StockCharts.com]

Disclosure(s): short SAN and BBVA at time of writing

Banco Santander Finally Tackles One Huge Problem: Its Ticker

With Spain firmly in the crosshairs of Act N+1 of the European sovereign debt crisis, it was with great comfort that I noted yesterday’s announcement from Spain’s largest and most important bank, Banco Santander (STD), that the company was finally addressing what I considered to be a seriously overlooked problem, its ticker symbol. After kicking the can down the road for what must have been countless meetings and conference calls, the marketing and PR people can finally claim a small victory now that Banco Santander has indicated it will change the NYSE ticker symbol of its American Depositary Shares from “STD” to “SAN” effective at the commencement of trading on June 14, 2012.

In the meantime, traders continue to favor STD puts and puts from Spain’s second largest bank, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), both of which have a more liquid options market than that of Spain’s ETF, EWP.

The top chart below shows put activity (red columns in bottom section of graph) ramping up in STD over the course of the last two weeks or so. The lower chart, however, puts recent options activity in the context of the August-October peak in the sovereign debt crisis, with a graphic that dates from July 1, 2011 and shows peak put activity (28.791 contracts per day) and implied volatility (111) dating from the week of August 4 – August 11, 2012.

As far as options traders are concerned, the current situation, while fraught with potential land mines, still pales in comparison to the challenges on the horizon six months ago.

Of course a new ticker won’t help address the underlying problems facing Banco Santander and Spain as a whole, but at least it might cut down on the snickers…

[VIX and More occasionally tilts at humor.  For more on these efforts, check out posts with the “lighter side” label.]

Related posts:

• Why Not Point Hedges?
• Chart of the Week: European Stocks Holding Up Well
• Recent Performance Divergence in European ETFs
• Where and When Will the Euro Bottom?
• Greece, Spain and the Pulse of European Anxiety
• Spain Rallies
• Global Bank Stocks in a Post-Lehman World

[source(s): LivevolPro.com]

Disclosure(s): short STD and BBVA at time of writing