Friday, January 25, 2008

The Game Is Afoot

Today’s bearish reversal is the first minor skirmish following the recent selloff and attempt at a bottom.

In looking at a chart of NASDAQ composite, the obvious ultimate support level is the 2202 bottom that was put in on Wednesday. Almost as important, however, is the green line at about 2320-2325 that I have added to the 30 minute chart below. For the moment at least, 2320 is the critical line in the sand. This line highlights important gaps on Wednesday and Thursday that served as resistance on both days, as the bottom was forming. Now the 2320-2325 area appears to have flipped from resistance to support in the face of today’s downturn.

It is way too early to draw any conclusions about the bottom earlier in the week, but there is a possibility that we are seeing the first higher low, which would move the battlefield to the 2220-2410 arena – the full extent of today’s range. About the only thing I can say with confidence at this point is that the game is afoot. How well the bulls defend 2320 should go a long way to determining whether this week’s action will turn out to be an important bottom. If 2320 falls, I suspect it will be very difficult to rally sufficient support to make 2202 hold.

6 comments:

Bill Luby said...

For a much longer term perspective on support and resistance for the NASDAQ, check out Chart of the Day

Anonymous said...

It's a bit hard to read, but isn't the green line at 2320, not 2220?

Eric

Bill Luby said...

Thanks for the heads up, Eric. It is indeed 2320, NOT 2220. I have made the appropriate edits.

Ben Bittrolff said...

Bottom Line: The average Joe six pack is a baby boomer quickly running out of time. His single largest asset, his primary residence, is deflating rapidly. This single largest asset is also the primary collateral for his single largest liability. His balance sheet is rapidly deflating as all his assets, from his home to his equity portfolio, all simultaneously deflate while his debt outstanding may actually still be increasing. His debt servicing are costs not dropping, despite aggressive rate cuts, and may actually be rising. It has also become damn near impossible to refinance certain mortgages as easy credit evaporates. On top of that, Joe six pack should now be seriously concerned about his job security. So when a cheque for $300 to $1500 arrives in the mail, Joe six pack is not going to spend it on a $200 steak dinner or a new computer or on a vacation. Got it people?

More on the stimulous package: (http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/01/fact-sheet-bush-stimulous-package.html)

TheFinancialNinja

Anonymous said...

Right my check is going straight to my Schwab account, no question.

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