Sunday, July 15, 2007

VWSI Lifts to +1

Closing at 15.15 for the week, up 0.43 or 2.9% from the previous week, the VIX does not feel particularly low to my untrained gut at current levels, but I must say that I was surprised to note that this is the second lowest close for the VIX over the course of the past 15 trading days.

This relatively low reading for the past 15 trading days is partly responsible for moving the VWSI off of zero to a +1 reading, meaning that while I am officially neutral on the direction of the VIX for the next week or two, there is a slight statistical bias in favor of a VIX rise.

Next week brings consumer prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing data, FOMC minutes, and even some Ben Bernanke testimony in to play. Of course, earnings season also kicks into high gear as well. What are the chances that these events will neatly offset each other and keep volatility in check? Even with the broad market indices making new highs, the VIX may not be as cheap as it looks.

(Note that in the above temperature gauge, the "bullish" and "bearish" labels apply to the VIX, not to the broader markets, which are usually negatively correlated with the VIX.)

Wine pairing: I am not sure how this happened, but I somehow neglected to mention my favorite of all the US gewurztraminers in previous posts about this varietal: the dry gewurztraminer from Londer Vineyards of Anderson Valley. I have not yet sampled the 2006 vintage, but the 2005 was an unforgettable wine that I would love to see in a blind tasting against some of the top Alsatian competition.

In my previous roundup of California gewurztraminer, I suggested Navarro and Harvest Moon. For some of my top selections from Alsace, check out Trimbach; Hugel; and Domaine Weinbach. You can also check out the top-rated gewurztraminers in the 2007 San Francisco Chronicle Wine Competition.

0 comments:

DISCLAIMER: "VIX®" is a trademark of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated is not affiliated with this website or this website's owner's or operators. CBOE assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness or any other aspect of any content posted on this website by its operator or any third party. All content on this site is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended as advice to buy or sell any securities. Stocks are difficult to trade; options are even harder. When it comes to VIX derivatives, don't fall into the trap of thinking that just because you can ride a horse, you can ride an alligator. Please do your own homework and accept full responsibility for any investment decisions you make. No content on this site can be used for commercial purposes without the prior written permission of the author. Copyright © 2007-2023 Bill Luby. All rights reserved.
 
Web Analytics