Pre-Employment Report Links
The more volatility we have, the less likely I am to set aside some time to collect and publish some of my favorite recent links, hence the lack of links here in the past month or so. I don’t want this informational/archival aspect of the blog to atrophy during the period when it may have the highest archival value, so I offer up the following links (including several voices new to this blog) that captured my attention during the last couple of days:
- Jack McHugh, via Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture, puts the current investment environment into perspective
- Brad Setser speculates that the large ‘European’ purchases of US debt might not be petrodollars, but coming from American banks
- Mark Hulbert notes the bullish implications of three 9-to-1 up days in the second half of August
- Agustin Mackinlay at The Global Liquidity Blog elaborates on bonds in panic mode and equities in denial
- Brett Steenbarger at TraderFeed is on the same page as Mackinlay, expressing concern about the rapidly increasing commercial paper spreads
- Vinny Catalano points out that recent liquidity growth may just be a means of counteracting the decrease in liquidity from 2001-2005
- Just in time for tomorrow’s report, Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture examines some alternative ways of measuring unemployment
- …and Michael Shedlock of Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis has a comprehensive analysis of the declining employment situation
- Mike Larson of Interest Rate Roundup looks at the implications of today’s Mortgage Banker Association foreclosure data
- Grace Cheng comments on the winding down of the carry trade
- …and Monty Silverman at Econoncator notes that Dresdner Kleinwort believes the carry trade will resume
- Toro’s Running of the Bulls has another study showing that higher volatility translates into lower returns
- Burt at Commodity Equity makes the case for a resurgence (and buying opportunity) in railroads
- Paul Hickey at Bespoke Investment Group has a handy bull and bear market historical reference guide
- David Gaffen at the WSJ’s MarketBeat Blog updates us on the hemline indicator (bad news all around: hemlines are dropping)
- Finally…if robots can cross the Atlantic in a small boat, how hard can it be to make them better traders?
4 comments:
Hi Bill,
Is it normal that both market and VIX are up, like today? In your research, when this happen, does it indicate a potential big down move in the near future? Or the market just works this out like nothing happen.
And ISEE went up big today. Very strange.
Thanks!
I have been searching for and reading various blogs hoping to find suitable ones to link to in my blog. I especially have come to like yours. I was wondering if you would like to exchange links.
Dereck
"Archival value" LOL!
Bill #1 (why are there some many Bills who are interested in the VIX?),
The VIX and SPX move in the same direction every fourth day or so, so yesterday's action is not all that unusual. (The larger the moves in the same direction, the more noteworthy they would be.) About one day in eight sees the VIX and the SPX move up together.
The implications of a one day move in the same direction are minimal. Where it gets intersting is when the VIX and SPX move in the same direction for longer periods of time. I wrote about this a little in April and May (try "High Positive Correlation Between VIX and SPX Often Signals Market Weakness") and you can tell from the title(s) that this type of action is bearish for the markets.
I will keep an eye on the correlations and holler if/when I think they are becoming noteworthy.
Dereck,
I have a hard and fast rule that I do not do reciprocal linking, as it would not be fair to the excellent blogs that I choose to highlight. I do read over 200 blogs each day, however, and once I have been impressed by the content for a month or two I sometimes add new favorites to my already bloated blogroll.
Bill #2,
Even though I am ignoring it this time around, I like the full moniker. Regarding value...hey, I'm not proud, I'll take it wherever I can get it!
Cheers and good trading all,
-Bill
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