Thursday, May 3, 2007

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge: #61,448

Who turned up the gravity?

As if the -30.2% drop in i2 Technologies (ITWO) on Tuesday were not enough top off my humility tank, yesterday saw Amkor Technology (AMKR) shave another 1.9% off of my portfolio. Just for good measure, today’s pick, Open Text (OTEX), is currently tracking down 4.5%.

Somehow, I have managed to stay in the top 4% of the 1,594,583 contestants who are suddenly looming a lot larger in my rear view mirror.

I really can’t fault the earnings spike potential algorithm, as its top pick from yesterday, Charter Communications (CHTR), is currently trading up a little over 3%. In a contest like this one, though, half the fun is throwing caution to the wind and overriding what your stock picking system is telling you what to do – which is exactly what I intend to do again today.

For those who are worried about my casual disregard of CNBC dollars, you might be somewhat heartened to know that I am toying with a new kind of stop, a so-called behavioral stop. Don’t look for this term on Investopedia, however, as I just made it up. I define a behavioral stop as “metric-based trigger that is designed to force an individual from continuing on a course of repeating a particular self-destructive investment behavior.” For example: if I drop out of the top 10%, then I stop playing volatility roulette.

Now, let’s see who’s reporting after the bell today…

7 comments:

F. said...

Hey man I feel your pain. I had 2.1 million and lost a huge chunk on NRMX yesterday. I made some of it back on SYMC today but am all-in SBUX this afternoon.

So much for the grand prize...

F. said...

I am also long 32.50 SBUX calls this afternoon. Wish me luck.

Bill Luby said...

Good luck, f, particularly with the 'real money' portion of the play.

I'm all in on LF into earnings. The algorithm selected this evening's top 5 earnings plays as follows:
1. LF
2. SWIM
3. INAP
4. NXG
5. MWY

F. said...

Our algorithm must be very similar. I also have LF on my screen as a top pick.

pleadership said...

I am feeling for you...if i could mention a couple of ideas. The markets have turned to big cap names...maybe an AL which is moving into multi year highs. Or, ICE which is coming out of a nice cup completion cheat. Or, BVN another big cap name. All have had their earnings now. Just thought I would pass you a couple of names. Keep up the good work on the blog.

Bill Luby said...

Thanks, pleadership. I still have a couple of tricks left up my sleeve and am confident that I can make up some lost ground next week.

Regarding large caps, I completely agree, as will see if you glance at the post below this one. With respect to ICE, fortunately my 'real money' portfolio has been on the right side of this one. I also like AL a lot, though I am not in it at present. BVN looks even more interesting; thanks for flagging it for me. I just added it to my watch list.

Good trading!

Bill Luby said...

pleadership, nice call on AL...up 34% on the AA buyout offer, with perhaps another suitor lurking?

I hope you got a piece of that one; I didn't.

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