Monday, December 10, 2012

Fear Poll Respondents Focus on Fiscal Cliff, Dismissive of European Financial Crisis

For the eighth week in a row, concerns about the U.S. fiscal cliff topped the VIX and More weekly fear poll. Fears related to excessive central bank intervention nudged out concerns related to government and politicians as the #2 issue, but perhaps the most interesting development is the how much the anxiety related to the European sovereign debt crisis continues to subside.

From a geographical perspective, U.S. and non-U.S. respondents had a relatively low divergence of opinion this week. That being said, whereas U.S. respondents cited the fiscal cliff as the top concern, non-U.S. respondents were most concerned about excessive central bank intervention in the economy. Perhaps part of the fallout from the fiscal cliff negotiations is that U.S. respondents see governments and politicians as much more likely to be the top threat to the stock market, by a margin of 5.6% over non-U.S. respondents.

Interestingly, both U.S. and non-U.S. respondents expressed much less concern about the euro zone problems, with only 4.9% of U.S. respondents citing euro zones as the #1 concern, while 5.9% of non-U.S. respondents put the euro zone issues at the top of the list.

With the FOMC meeting scheduled to wind up on Wednesday, the fiscal cliff talks inching closer to that last day on which legislation can be introduced in Congress for the year (December 18th, based upon a December 21st recess) and Alcoa scheduled to report Q4 earnings and unofficially kick of the next earnings reporting season on January 8th, there is the potential for quite a few things to hit the fan in the coming month.

In spite of all these threats looming just around the corner, the VIX remains subdued and is still in a position to reinforce the notion that December Is the Cruelest Month…for the VIX.

Once again, thanks to all who participated in this weekly poll.

Related posts:

Disclosure(s): none

blog comments powered by Disqus
DISCLAIMER: "VIX®" is a trademark of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated is not affiliated with this website or this website's owner's or operators. CBOE assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness or any other aspect of any content posted on this website by its operator or any third party. All content on this site is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended as advice to buy or sell any securities. Stocks are difficult to trade; options are even harder. When it comes to VIX derivatives, don't fall into the trap of thinking that just because you can ride a horse, you can ride an alligator. Please do your own homework and accept full responsibility for any investment decisions you make. No content on this site can be used for commercial purposes without the prior written permission of the author. Copyright © 2007-2023 Bill Luby. All rights reserved.
Web Analytics