Monday, September 13, 2010

Chart of the Week: Updated Economic Data Trends

First unveiled on July 2nd in Trends in Economic Data Relative to Expectations, I was pleasantly surprised by the positive reception to my chart of how various components of economic activity have been tracking against expectations for 2010. As a result, I expect to periodically update a version of this chart for the blog.

This week’s chart of the week is one such update, selected partly because the last several weeks suggest a possible reversal in the negative trend of economic data relative to expectations for employment and the consumer (Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence, Consumer Sentiment, Personal Income, Personal Spending, etc.)

While there is some evidence that the downtrend in economic data may have been broken, there is at best marginal evidence to support the idea of a bullish uptrend in the data. Starting tomorrow with the retail sales numbers, this week should go a long way toward answering some of the questions about what the data say about the state of economic activity in the United States.

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