Sunday, September 6, 2009

Chart of the Week: Peak Hurricane Season Is Here

This year the Atlantic hurricane season has been a quiet one, but that is not to say things cannot heat up over the course of the next month or so.

In fact, as this week’s chart of the week shows, the hurricane season officially peaks in the next few days with the risk of hurricanes and tropical storms remaining elevated through the end of October.

While hurricane season is peaking soon, it is worth noting that there are meteorological phenomena which suggest it is no accident that hurricanes have had very little impact on the U.S. mainland in 2009. Specifically, experts attribute the below normal hurricane activity to El Niño, which developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean during June and has been responsible for increased wind shear in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, where most Atlantic hurricanes develop.

It is possible that the U.S. – including the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas infrastructure – will manage to elude significant damage from hurricanes this season, but for anyone looking to hedge positions or make speculative plays on hurricane activity, this would be a good week to do so relatively inexpensively.

For some excellent hurricane resources, try:

[source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]


Anonymous said...

The rally of gold last week could be a false signal and I doubt we will have the doom and gloom in the equities market for the rest of the year as would be seemingly predicted by this signal.

This market sends false signals all the time, which is why it's so tricky to trade.

David Merkel said...

When things start quiet, they tend to end quiet. Not always true, but weather patterns tend to persist through a hurricane season.

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