Friday, March 9, 2007

Canary or Canard?

Earlier in the week, I introduced a ratio chart of the percentage of S&P500 stocks above their 50 day SMA divided by the VIX. I described this as an attempt to find a rough approximation of greed ÷ fear. Since this chart received some favorable reviews, let me unveil another VIX ratio chart that attempts identify the same market sentiment extremes and provide a warning about the increased probability of near-term market highs and lows.

The chart below is a weekly chart of the ratio of the new 52 week highs in the NYSE divided by the VIX. I focus primarily on the raw number and the 4 week SMA. You can see from the chart that raw reading above 30 and a 4 week SMA readings above 20 tend to signal that a top is near.

In fact, this chart provided excellent advance notice of the 2/27/07 top, the 5/11/06 top, and previous tops in March 2004 and March 2005. With bottoms, the record is not quite as good, with an excellent advance call of the October 2005 low, but calls that were too early for May-July 2006, March-August 2004, and July 2002-March 2003.

You can decide if this ratio chart deserves a spot in your toolbox or bird cage or whatever it is that you use to try to divine the future. For me, it’s a keeper.


Anonymous said...

[url=]doudoune moncler[/url] rslkb [url=][/url] akuxu [url=]chaussure louboutin[/url] hkguf [url=]abercrombie[/url] swbum

Anonymous said...

vYqt GHD Straightener
mOms wholesale nfl jerseys
pSxw ugg online
9xEsa ghd
2wJgb purple ghd straighteners

Anonymous said...

rGif ghd hair straightener
mDlp ugg store
pGqn michael kors sale
5ySfe ugg uk
3fWjr chi iron
7pGlf ghd
4bSyh nfl jerseys
7nGri ghd hair straighteners
0mNkw cheap north face jackets
1iHqx ugg online
1xLdb cheap ghd straighteners
2tTyp michael kors purses
4hPdt cheap nfl jerseys
4aPyg ghd baratas
9mOyq cheap ugg

Anonymous said...

qZwr coach factory
vPri cheap ugg boots uk
xFuc michael kors bags
0gUvu ugg boots cheap
4iCep chi hair straightener
5lGkp michael kors outlet
6zAdp nfl football jerseys
7bSqe coach outlet store
3dMix cheap north face
5sCvn ugg baratas
5pDht ghd hair straighteners
7xIre michael kors wallet
9qHra nfl shop
8mMzd planchas ghd
6rYjm cheap uggs

Anonymous said...

Thanks in favor of sharing such a pleasant thought, piece of
writing is fastidious, thats why i have read it entirely

Also visit my blog :: tao of badass

Anonymous said...

Hi, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just curious if you get a lot of spam responses?
If so how do you prevent it, any plugin or anything you can
suggest? I get so much lately it's driving me insane so any help is very much appreciated.

Also visit my site - tao system joshua pellicer

Anonymous said...

We stumbled over here from a different website and thought I might check things out.
I like what I see so now i am following you. Look forward to exploring
your web page for a second time.

My webpage: tao of badass book

Anonymous said...

It's amazing in favor of me to have a website, which is useful in support of my know-how. thanks admin

Take a look at my blog post: pdf the tao of badass

Erotik Film said...

Bitcoin center trade fed and casino slot bettilt and floud movies and music free hack tools instagram and tiktok videos bettilt giris adresi tr için yeni bir sistemdir.

DISCLAIMER: "VIX®" is a trademark of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated is not affiliated with this website or this website's owner's or operators. CBOE assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness or any other aspect of any content posted on this website by its operator or any third party. All content on this site is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended as advice to buy or sell any securities. Stocks are difficult to trade; options are even harder. When it comes to VIX derivatives, don't fall into the trap of thinking that just because you can ride a horse, you can ride an alligator. Please do your own homework and accept full responsibility for any investment decisions you make. No content on this site can be used for commercial purposes without the prior written permission of the author. Copyright © 2007-2023 Bill Luby. All rights reserved.
Web Analytics