Thursday, May 15, 2008

One Reason Why Volatility May Have Bottomed

The graphic below says it all – and the official beginning of hurricane season is two weeks from Sunday.

Given the supply issues with oil and natural gas, even the threat of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is sure to cause considerable consternation. Of course, with all the global warming, this year’s prediction from the folks at Colorado State University is not particularly soothing:

"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State hurricane forecast team. "We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons."

I’ll have more to say on weather and volatility as we get deeper into the hurricane season.


Anonymous said...

huh? so you are saying that oil would shoot up and the market might tank?? but looking today, market initally was held up by material and energy... so if oil goes up...?

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