Friday, October 12, 2007

From Overripe to Vulnerable?

I recently published a list of ten of my “Overripe High Fliers” in a post with the intriguing name of “BIDU: Hogs (Eventually) Get Slaughtered.” Ironically, BIDU was trading at 301 at the time of that post (September 25th), not too far from where it is as I type this, but I’ll save a more detailed discussion of BIDU for another day.

As of yesterday, my Overripe High Fliers list (yes, I actually call it an OHFdex) was up to 17 components. In the graphic below, I have sorted the OHFdex components by daily percentage change. Clearly the Macau gaming high fliers LVS and WYNN bucked the trend yesterday. Interestingly, those two stocks are down today while the tech stocks are rallying. The OHFdex group of 17 includes many of the market leaders and top performers from the past few months. If these continue to bounce back, then the bull market should remain strong. On the other hand, if this group falters, then the market will have to find new leadership or else succumb to the same gravity.

For quick visual reference, I have also included the CandleGlance charts from for the 14 highest fliers (yes FSLR, LDK and ICE have been demoted.) For the record, these charts include a 20 day SMA in blue and a 50 day SMA in red:


Tim Knight said...

Just wanted to say I enjoy your blog, and I'm grateful for your including my blog in your list. I visit VIX a few times a week!

Bill Luby said...

Thanks, Tim. The admiration is definitely a two way street.

FYI, your blog was was of the first ones that I latched on to when I was starting up at the beginning of the year.

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