Chinese Solar Stocks on the Rise

Two areas that have been rife with speculative frenzy – both bullish and bearish – over the past year or so have been China and solar stocks. Not surprisingly, the space where the two intersect, Chinese solar stocks, has been one of the most volatile segments of the market.

I have elected not to show the long-term chart of these stocks, which looks a lot like a higher beta version of the chart of the FXI. Instead, the chart below compares the year-to-date performance of the most significant players in the Chinese solar space that are traded on US exchanges: JASO; STP; LDK; YGE; TSL; SOLF; and CSUN. I left JASO as the anchor and show the volume in this stock at the bottom of the chart because JASO is the biggest gainer of the year so far and the chart shows that after the March 10^th bottom, strong volume flowed into the stock over the next three days, marking the beginning of the current leg up.

Given their high profile and speculative history, Chinese solar stocks can be an excellent speculative barometer, not only for China and the solar sector, but for the markets as a whole. More importantly, where there is strong speculative activity, particularly coming off of a sharp bear move, there is increased confidence in the markets and a high degree of perceived opportunity.

Gap City: LDK

I’m reasonably sure that whatever I write here will be obsolete in the ten minutes that it takes me to post it, but I feel compelled to comment about LDK Solar (LDK) anyway.

For those who do not follow LDK, this is the Chinese solar company that was the subject of accounting fraud allegations by a former controller that helped to knock the stock down from the mid-70s to the mid-20s over the course of a month or so. On Monday, LDK reported that the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors had finished their review of the matter and concluded that there had been no wrongdoing. Things were looking up until LDK reported quarterly results after the close yesterday. The numbers were generally in line, but concerns about margins and the absence of raised guidance has put pressure on this stock this morning, which traded down as much as 27% earlier in the session.

While the story is interesting, the chart may raise even more eyebrows, as it is littered with gaps and the tombstones of overzealous traders. If you are thinking about playing solar roulette, consider that directional plays are extremely dangerous. One way to make to potentially make some money off of the faddish momentum and wild gyrations is to sell volatility below support and above resistance, so you can get paid while you watch the fun. Even if you don’t play this stock, the entertainment value alone makes it worth keeping an eye on.

On a related note, is it only me, or does anyone else who trades Chinese solar counterpart JA Solar Holdings (JASO) think of a hockey mask every time they look at the ticker? Given the volatility in that stock, somehow it seems an appropriate image…

Finally, anyone interested in rolling the dice in the solar sector, Chinese and otherwise, should start their research with the excellent solar stock comparison table at China Analyst.

What’s in the FXI?

Now that the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ticker FXI) is regularly trading 5 million or so shares per day, it would be fairly easy for a trader to make a living trading just this one basket of China stocks. It has volatility, it has options (check out the new Morningstar options data if you haven’t already), and it will soon have a 2x inverse ETF (ticker FXP) if you want to play the other side at twice the speed.

But what is in this index? Note that the China internet stocks (BIDU, FMCN, SOHU, SINA, etc.) and the China solar stocks (LDK, JASO, TSL, YGE, etc.), both recent market darlings, are conspicuously absent from the list. I have included an October 31, 2007 snapshot of the components of the FXI, with all quotes from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange:

Ten companies included in the FXI are also traded on the NYSE with ADRs. For easy reference I offer links to a Yahoo Finance version of that list in an intra-day format and also in the more detailed summary format. At the moment, all ten companies on this list are trading down 2-6% for the day, while the FXI is down 3.4% after hitting a new high of 219.56 during yesterday’s trading session.

When the FXP arrives, I will probably give it a test drive, but not until there is more convincing evidence that the FXI has put in at least a short-term top. At that point, the volume in the FXP may also provide some interesting clues about investor sentiment, specifically the breadth and depth of concern about a bubble in the Chinese stock market. For now at least, there is no reason to believe that the China trend is going to end soon and the best place continues to be on the long side.

From Overripe to Vulnerable?

I recently published a list of ten of my “Overripe High Fliers” in a post with the intriguing name of “BIDU: Hogs (Eventually) Get Slaughtered.” Ironically, BIDU was trading at 301 at the time of that post (September 25^th), not too far from where it is as I type this, but I’ll save a more detailed discussion of BIDU for another day.

As of yesterday, my Overripe High Fliers list (yes, I actually call it an OHFdex) was up to 17 components. In the graphic below, I have sorted the OHFdex components by daily percentage change. Clearly the Macau gaming high fliers LVS and WYNN bucked the trend yesterday. Interestingly, those two stocks are down today while the tech stocks are rallying. The OHFdex group of 17 includes many of the market leaders and top performers from the past few months. If these continue to bounce back, then the bull market should remain strong. On the other hand, if this group falters, then the market will have to find new leadership or else succumb to the same gravity.

For quick visual reference, I have also included the CandleGlance charts from StockCharts.com for the 14 highest fliers (yes FSLR, LDK and ICE have been demoted.) For the record, these charts include a 20 day SMA in blue and a 50 day SMA in red:

Fireworks Forecast for the Next Few Days

It doesn’t take a lot of courage to predict fireworks in the markets following tomorrow’s Fed announcement, but it is interesting to wonder which stocks will be the biggest movers.

A scan of some of the stocks with the highest implied volatility tells a good part of the story. From the group below comes some obvious choices, such as home builders and lenders. There are also two Chinese companies, including one in the red-hot solar sector, as well as various natural resources plays in gold, oil/gas, and dry bulk shipping. Then, of course, there is the VIX itself.

[The chart above includes only front month at the money options with an IV of 70 or more and a relatively low bar for volume and open interest.]

For the record, the current VIX IV is right in the middle of the 52 week range and has been below 30 day historical volatility for the past month or so.

I have included a Yahoo finance link to all nine high IV stocks (actually eight stocks and the VIX, but who’s counting…) for those who like to play with fire. As I write this, I’ve begun to wonder whether traders are more likely to have been pyromaniacs as children. Hmmm. Are traders more or less prone to having risky hobbies? Lurkers, feel free to weigh in on this one.