Saturday, July 7, 2007

VWSI at Zero for Fourth Week in a Row

Volatility apparently used the 4th of July holiday as an excuse to take the whole week off, with the VIX falling 9.3% from 16.23 to 14.72.

It is unusual for the VWSI to register four consecutive weeks of a zero reading (it happens about once a year) and equally unusual to see a zero in eight out of eleven weeks. In the past, this type of flat line consolidation has not generally preceded a breakout in volatility, in contrast to some stocks that tend to trade in an increasingly narrow range before breaking out.

Keep in mind that Alcoa kicks off the earnings season on Monday, so things could change in a hurry.

(Note that in the above temperature gauge, the "bullish" and "bearish" labels apply to the VIX, not to the broader markets, which are usually negatively correlated with the VIX.)

Wine pairing: For an inexpensive Rhone blend, I continue to recommend: Oakley Five Reds; Robert Hall’s Rhone de Robles and Tablas Creek’s Cote de Tablas Blanc; Wrongo Dongo, the contrarian favorite from Spain; and The Stump Jump (I prefer the white over the red) from Australia. If you are looking for additional ideas, I encourage you check out the Rhone Rangers.


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