Further to
yesterday’s Coronavirus
(COVID-19), post,
Tracking
the Trajectory and Peak of Coronavirus Cases, I want to make sure we are
thinking not just in terms of the absolute number of confirmed cases, but also
cases per million.
The graphic
below highlights the countries which have been hit hardest on a per capita
basis. Using this criterion, Iceland is the country
where the coronavirus is most prevalent, followed by Italy, South Korea,
Iran, China and Switzerland. These six countries stand out as having
passed an inflection point. Given the
data out of Western Europe in the past 48 hours, it appears as if Spain, Sweden, France and Denmark are not
far behind. The U.S. currently ranks 41st
in terms of cases per million, with just 1/100th of the penetration in
Iceland.
[source(s): Wikipedia, VIX and More]
Assuming the distribution
of new cases continues to trace a parabolic path, being able to reasonably
estimate the terminal penetration rate – which will no doubt vary by country – could
help to set expectations about the progress and timeline of new cases.
Finally, to follow up on yesterday’s post, I am now dating the first day of 100 new cases in the U.S. at March 7th. Using the 8-14 day window for 100 new cases to peak new cases means the U.S. could see peak new cases in the March 15th – March 22nd time frame, with an outside shot of the peak extending out to March 29th. Of course, this projection are merely an extrapolation from the experience in other countries and will be largely dependent upon the rate at which testing is ramped up in the U.S.
Finally, to follow up on yesterday’s post, I am now dating the first day of 100 new cases in the U.S. at March 7th. Using the 8-14 day window for 100 new cases to peak new cases means the U.S. could see peak new cases in the March 15th – March 22nd time frame, with an outside shot of the peak extending out to March 29th. Of course, this projection are merely an extrapolation from the experience in other countries and will be largely dependent upon the rate at which testing is ramped up in the U.S.
Further Reading:
A
Conceptual Framework for Volatility Events
Bird Flu Stocks and Volatility
VIX Sets New Record with Nine Up Days in a Row
Fear Poll: Fed/QE, Ebola and Technicals Top Worry List
Bird Flu Stocks and Volatility
VIX Sets New Record with Nine Up Days in a Row
Fear Poll: Fed/QE, Ebola and Technicals Top Worry List
For those who
may be interested, you can always follow me on Twitter at @VIXandMore
Disclosure(s): none