Exactly 200 trading days ago today, on September 24th, the S&P 500 index last traded over 1200. From that point, it only took six more trading days before the SPX closed under 1000. From that point forward, the SPX flirted with the 1000 level for about a month, before plunging to a low close of 752 in November and ultimately a bottom closing low of 676 in March.
I mention this not out of a desire to wax nostalgic, but to point out that the 200 day simple moving average for the SPX is in the process of dropping those last few closing values in the 1000-1200 range over the course of the next week or so. This means, among other things, that the 200 day moving average is going to start forming a rounded bottom next week and should only drop another five points or so to 869.
Don’t expect to see much of an uptick in the 200 day moving average until the beginning of September. At that point, it should start rising at a rate of about two points per week.
Finally, as I type this, the SPX is at its highest level above the 200 day SMA (about 6.6%) since July 2007.
For more on this subject, check out The SPX and the 200 Day Moving Average.
All the more reason to use EMA's.
ReplyDeleteNice brief analysis - however what it means to me is the SPX has over shot its self at the levels we currently are 940
ReplyDeleteimma seller into this rally.
ReplyDeletebill, i am on twitter now, and following you. david korn seattle, some notes therein about spx up four days in a row, and stats therein. take care, and totally love your work.
ReplyDeleteheuristical at twitter, following now.
Thanks for all the comments, everyone.
ReplyDeleteDavid, it's good to hear from you again. With Twitter it's pretty much love/hate on this end, but my antipathy seems to be slowly on the decline.
Cheers,
-Bill