Wednesday, May 6, 2009

SPX 915 as a Top?

I have a strong feeling that the 915 level on the SPX hit in the first half hour of trading today will hold up for awhile. Of course, anything is possible with the bank stress tests and the employment report on deck, but I am betting on 915 holding, especially if the NDX (NASDAQ-100 continues to be relatively weak)
at

9 comments:

  1. DGMay 6, 2009 at 7:40 AM

    What time do they announce the bank stress test tomorrow? Is it during market hours or after market? XLF (financials) will likely push the S&P500 up or down. Hope the 915 will be the near term top for a while..

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  2. Bill LubyMay 6, 2009 at 7:42 AM

    Not sure about the timing. I heard "late afternoon" and I also heard the individual banks are expected to announce specific results on Friday morning.

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  3. EricMay 6, 2009 at 8:49 AM

    VIX broke below my 33 level and bounced right back. I would sell VIX Puts here. I do not think this will last long though, I thing the VIX 200 EMA is where I would close the position.
    One more big pullback... I think the next rally carries us out.
    I have no idea what to expect on the stress tests. Honestly, I think more and more that no news matters. Look at the ADP numbers. That is probably the only reason we did not have a bigger sell-off, but when the market is ready to reverse, the news flow doesn't seem to matter.

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  4. AnonymousMay 6, 2009 at 12:20 PM

    These markets are looking for a reason to keep the rally going on any news. It's simply too risky to time it right now and better to wait it out.

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  5. Bill LubyMay 6, 2009 at 12:24 PM

    You make a lot of sense, anon.

    On the other hand, I think the exits could get crowded if everyone goes to cash out their profits at the same time.

    -Bill

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  6. UnknownMay 6, 2009 at 1:07 PM

    The question is, when does that happen, imminent or 4-8 weeks more? The VIX/VXV ratio has been stubbornly hovering just under 1 for quite a while now which indicates we could have significantly more to go up before a reversal. One indicator of course isn't the tell-all, but it could be telling us something.

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  7. Bill LubyMay 6, 2009 at 1:33 PM

    In terms of timing, I thinking more like 4 trading days than 4-8 weeks, but we should know a lot more by Friday.

    -Bill

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  8. DouglasMay 6, 2009 at 5:04 PM

    Bill

    You correctly predicted a stealth bottom - do you now predict a witch's hat shaped top?

    Douglas

    PS I ask this because of your comments about the exits being crowded.

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  9. EricMay 6, 2009 at 6:53 PM

    you were off by a day or 2 last time...

    I have 920,

    my official target is 926 by BS math.

    Today shoved it up the shorts ass, and now their tails are firmly planted in the hole.

    eric2

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