Last week, in Commercial Real Estate Problems Piling Up, I opined that commercial real estate is a likely candidate to usher in the next leg of the financial crisis. Since the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index gets so much publicity, I thought this would be a good opportunity to mention a commercial real estate index that deserves more attention: the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index.
This index was last updated April 24th and shows that prices have dropped slightly more than 20% since the October 2007 peak.
While residential prices are important to watch, most of the residential story has already been told. The rest of the real estate story – good or bad – likely lies on the commercial side.
[source: MIT Center for Real Estate, Real Capital Analytics]
Since this is a round-trip price basis, it seems that it will be quite accurate but also lagging.
ReplyDeleteVIX:TNX is at 1.13... I think this might be the headfake before the leg down. Looks like today's move up is on very low volume.
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