Waiting on the Fed; VWSI at -1 Again

By the numbers, last week saw the VIX decline 1.31 or 5% to 24.92, following four days in a row where the VIX opened near the high of the day, then slowly pulled back.

Needless to say, all eyes are on Tuesday at this stage, where the Fed and the VIX will dance on the last day for trading September VIX options and disappointed investors could provide additional confirmation for the current VIX macro cycle.

With the VWSI at -1, held in check largely by the VIX’s relatively low long-term moving averages, I don’t see implied volatility or the VWSI telling us much about what the Fed is going to say, so I’ll be waiting just like everyone else, content to know that it is usually better to try to react than anticipate.

(Note that in the above temperature gauge, the "bullish" and "bearish" labels apply to the VIX, not to the broader markets, which are usually negatively correlated with the VIX.)

Wine pairing: For a VWSI of -1 I continue to recommend a pinot noir. When I think of California pinot noirs, I immediately think of the Russian River Valley and the nearby small and foggy appelation known as Green Valley. Excellent pinot noir is more the rule than the exception here and four of my favorite producers are Martinelli Winery, Lynmar Winery, Hartford Family Winery, and Dutton-Goldfield Winery.

Further afield, last week, I spoke about three superb pinot noir producers from Anderson Valley: Londer Vineyards, Goldeneye (along with their second label Migration), and Esterlina Vineyards.

For some other suggestions on the pinot noir front, I have another blog with links to a dozen of my favorite producers: Zin and Pinot.