Just a quick note to let readers know that Bespoke Investment Group is out with their 2010 Roundtable and VIX and More was one of the dozen participants who put their necks – and ideas – out on the chopping block.
In the past I have resisted looking ahead with predictions for the coming year for several reasons, not the least of which is that most of my trading is driven by technical and market sentiment factors that have a strong predictive power for up to a month or so and on rare occasions two expiration cycles or more. Looking out more than two months means that I have to swap my technical/sentiment hat for a macroeconomic/fundamental one and as soon as that happens it seems as if my predictive ability is no better than the wisdom of the crowds – which is not surprising given that the best in the world struggle to be right 60% of the time according to CXO Advisory Group’s guru grades.
In any event, Bespoke has published both the highlights from all the responses, as well as a PDF of all the individual predictions and commentary, including the 2010 VIX and More PDF.
Thanks to Bespoke for pulling together an excellent group of pundits. Hopefully, somewhere among the spectrum of ideas presented there are a couple of nuggets for each investor.
Readers may wish to ponder each of the questions and issues raised by Bespoke in the next week or so and consider the implications for their investment approach in 2010. Of course if eggnog takes priority over contemplating all the possible housing market scenarios, I can certainly understand that too…
Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all.
Disclosure: Long eggnog