Monday, May 4, 2009

SPX Reclaims 900 Level

The S&P 500 index has not traded above the 900 level since the beginning of January, but just edged above that number a moment ago.

In spite of all the recent bullishness in stocks, my evaluation of the risk/reward ratio of the markets has me positioned with a bearish bias at the the moment.
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6 comments:

  1. AnonymousMay 4, 2009 at 12:33 PM

    "...has me positioned with a bearish bias at the the moment"

    And so are many others (who is playing the odds). I've start shorting this market last Thursday and so far getting run over like many others... I thought no way in hell NDX can have straight 8th week up close, but I was wrong... so, yes, bear market can be vicious... IF this is a bear market rally... :)

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  2. EricMay 4, 2009 at 1:15 PM

    Too many sectors overbought here. I (like anonymous) have been short the last week. Probably see another big open tomorrow, but I cannot believe the money flow into financials before Thursday. That has to be a big "sell the news" event.
    One thing that looks very good to me is Natural Gas. I am going to start building a position in UNG. Probably gonna get short KOL and IYM soon. Also looking to get short INP if it weakens.

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  3. EricMay 4, 2009 at 1:59 PM

    Well VXN closed above 35. That is what I was hoping for.

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  4. AnonymousMay 4, 2009 at 11:44 PM

    Yesterday (May 4) the total amount of SPX call selling outweighed the total amount of SPX put selling by the widest margin since this rally began so I would say the top is VERY close.

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  5. AnonymousMay 5, 2009 at 3:42 AM

    Eric, "...but I cannot believe the money flow into financials before Thursday."

    Me too! (I'm the first anonymous)
    But that's what puzzels me. I can't believe people are that "brave" before the stress test. So either government (GS?) is purposely pushing the market up with our tax money so that when they announce the market have room to fall below. OR stress test would be a non-event and market would just continue go up. I guess we will see. "sell the news" seems to be too obvious for now.

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  6. EricMay 5, 2009 at 2:57 PM

    OK, so, I have been wrong for the last week plus, thinking this was gonna run out of steam.
    I said my VIX range was 33-40, and now we are sitting close to 33. I have bearish positions on AXP, QQQQ, XLF, and probably SPY tomorrow.

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