Tuesday, February 3, 2009

SPX Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Approaching Breakout

In the chart below, I show a symmetrical triangle (dotted green line) that has formed in the S&P 500 index over the course of the past 2-3 months. As the triangle narrows, the potential for a breakout move – in either direction – increases substantially.

Classical technical analysis categorizes symmetrical triangles as continuation patterns, which suggests that the most likely direction of the breakout move is down. With the SPX currently hugging the bottom of the pattern and needing to gain about 1.7 points each day just to stay above the line, treading water is not good enough. Instead, the markets will need a significant bounce to get some breathing room.

I still think a significant bounce is a strong possibility, but time is running low…

[source: StockCharts]

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4 comments:

  1. AnonymousFebruary 3, 2009 at 9:05 AM

    Hi Bill, you have a very similar pattern on Nasdaq 100 and also on FOREX crosses involving the yen. See for instance: http://www.leblogfinance.com/2009/02/2-petits-graphi.html

    Thanks for your very good work!
    --
    Laurent

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  2. Bill LubyFebruary 3, 2009 at 9:07 AM

    Thanks for the heads up, Laurent.

    For the record, your site makes me want to learn French! (At least I can still enjoy the graphics.)

    Cheers,

    -Bill

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  3. EricFebruary 3, 2009 at 12:00 PM

    I think we are going to breakout, either Friday, or early next week. I think we may have a move down over the next two days, esp when the bad employment numbers come out ( but that seems obvious, but who knows how bad they might be). I plan to enter on Friday and have noticed a lot of open interest at the 10, 11 level of the XLF. I also see bullish options action on the SSO for the 23-28 levels. We could actually retest the Nov lows this week and hopefully enter on the following bounce.

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  4. AnonymousFebruary 3, 2009 at 1:56 PM

    NDX's pattern is much narrower and the Nasdaq is between SPX and NDX. Quite oblivious it's the techs that going to lead this mini-cyclical bull market rally. Financial weighted Dow and SP500 will continue to lag and the ones to 'short' once the bull run ends.

    Jimmy

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