With the VIX under 75 and only ten minutes left in the trading day, it looked like volatility was on the wane, but aggressive selling into the close dropped the DJIA 200 points and helped to push the VIX up over the 80 during the extra 15 minutes of index options trading.
This is the first time the VIX has closed over 80 and the 8th time in the past 16 trading days that the VIX has registered a new record close.
How far can this go ?
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me we are extremely oversold to unprecedent levels.
In history nothing goes straight down, so odds are we may see a big bounce as early as this week.
Today the DJIA dropped 200 points in about 10 minutes into the close. Not a good sign. Foreign markets have actually led the declines. If the US markets decide to catch up to these foreign markets, then look out below. No signs of a bottom yet, just grinding it's way down and chopping up most traders along the way. Next stop looks like the 2003 low. I did a study on the two big consumer stocks WMT (Wallmart) & MCD (McDonalds) and overlayed them against big companies. Check the Monthly charts. These two are just starting to turn dowm. The consumer is 70% of GNP and a big part of stock consuption as well. Another bad sign.
ReplyDeleteactually anon1, we haven't declined in a straight line.
ReplyDeleteit has been extremely hard for the shorts to stay in
only the best and savvy traders, the few that are out there, are able to profit from these moves
im not sure about others but im sick and tired of this volatility
if the market were a person, i would seriously want to kill it
anyone who is excited and hoping for a crash, i really hope they blow up their accounts
a depression is bad for everyone
As absurd as it may seem, maybe daytraders are dominating market behavior these days.
ReplyDeleteInvestors look afraid to even hold positions overnight.
It's worth noting that we are almost 50% off Oct07 highs.
ReplyDeleteAt some point soon, all this recession talk should be
'priced in'...
The P/E's of many stocks are getting very attractive.
Do people REALLY think we're headed for some kind of global meltdown? What about all of those new comsumers in China, India and Brazil??
I'm not invested because I'm afraid of what new rules the government will come up with on a Sunday night that will hurt what would have otherwise been a sound investment. So, I think the market will go down as long as people lack confidence in future earnings and regulatory environment. Some positive earnings surprises may mark the turning point.
ReplyDeleteDue to the very oversold conditions, extreme pessimism and to the closing levels of the U.S. stock markets yesterday, Vix cash index readings of less than 70 and a bullish week for the U.S. stock markets would not be surprising this week.
ReplyDeletewe live in an anonymous world
ReplyDeleteYes, we are all anonymous.
ReplyDeleteI am the 1st anonymous in the list above, and im happy i called this rally. However, i belive we will end the week flat.
I am the anonymous that posted the October twenty-eighth 9:34 AM EST message that appears below. The S&P 500 futures futures are up again this morning, despite the large drop in the U.S. dollar and the large increase in crude prices. This week will be a bullish week to a very bearish October.
ReplyDelete"Due to the very oversold conditions, extreme pessimism and to the closing levels of the U.S. stock markets yesterday, Vix cash index readings of less than 70 and a bullish week for the U.S. stock markets would not be surprising this week."
The rally that started with October twenty-eighth 889 DJIA and 91 SPX 500 point rally continues in a pre-election rally of 19 S&P and 175 DJIA point rally this morning. My October twenty-eighth 9:34 AM prediction of a rally from the DJIA 8176 and SPX 849 levels appears below.
ReplyDelete"Due to the very oversold conditions, extreme pessimism and to the closing levels of the U.S. stock markets yesterday, Vix cash index readings of less than 70 and a bullish week for the U.S. stock markets would not be surprising this week."