I highly recommend that every investor read Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s two books on uncertainty, luck, risk, and revisionist history: Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets; and The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.
For those who are interested in a video Cliffs Notes version of Taleb’s thinking, Charlie Rose has a 15 minute interview with Taleb that aired back in August (hat tip to Eddy Elfenbein at Crossing Wall Street.)
Just for fun, in case anyone missed it, Steven Dubner of Freakonomics fame did a Q&A of Taleb earlier this year on the Freakonomics blog: Straight from the Black Swan's Mouth.
ReplyDeleteOff topic,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your take on the recent VIX action and the ISEE?
Sure seems like this bearish move may be temporarily exhausted (a few days or weeks) due the crescendo of fear that we experienced over the last week.
What is your take?
On Taleb,
ReplyDeleteBill Keane interviewed him on Bloomberg last night (maybe a replay, I am not sure) and called the Black Swan "rambling", basically trashing it WHILE interviewing Taleb.
He did previously state that "Fooled by Randomness" was a classic or masterpiece (something like that), so I don't know how Taleb took it.
And he immediately went to a commercial break after trashing the Black Swan. Funny stuff.
Hi Robert,
ReplyDeleteThe ISEE was stunningly low today -- the kind of low I had expected to see earlier in the week.
I'm not convinced that the selling dries up next week. As bad as it has felt, it has only two weeks so far -- even though they have been two dramatic weeks.
Let me study some data and charts and see what I can come up with over the weekend.
I still have a short bias in my holdings, but I'm mostly in cash at the moment.
Cheers,
-Bill
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ReplyDelete