Wednesday, August 1, 2007

VIX (26.04) at 164% of 50 day SMA

This is not uncharted waters, but it is close.

If today is not a top in the VIX, I'd be shocked if the top is not in by the end of the week.
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3 comments:

  1. AnonymousAugust 1, 2007 at 1:29 PM

    Stockcharts gives a P&F target of 30.

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  2. AnonymousAugust 1, 2007 at 5:28 PM

    If the vix can't get below 15 does that imply that this is the all new bear market ?

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  3. Bill LubyAugust 1, 2007 at 6:20 PM

    Malcolm,

    I'm not sure P&F charts are a good choice for the VIX (I'm thinking of the bias toward mean reversion rather than trending) but then again, I'm far from being a P&F expert.


    Anon,

    I suspect we could resume a bull market with a VIX in the 20s (like we had in the late 90s,) but as the VIX goes up -- and stays up -- the odds of bull market go down.

    You might want to check out "The Return of the Absolute VIX" for more information.

    Cheers,

    -Bill

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