tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post662661896556538256..comments2024-03-25T09:22:22.004-07:00Comments on VIX and More: Volatility Storm at Two Years and Counting…Bill Lubyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-68049369064604044012009-03-03T03:56:00.000-08:002009-03-03T03:56:00.000-08:00Awesome chart and comment about the tide changing ...Awesome chart and comment about the tide changing the coastline. Well said.<BR/><BR/>I wonder if the Obama election and rally at the end of the year was the eye of the hurricane passing over us, and now we will see the backside of the storm rage on for another while...<BR/><BR/>"Sell call, buy put"Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08474747770976362426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-71733567559565091212009-02-28T18:05:00.000-08:002009-02-28T18:05:00.000-08:00I don't think VIX will ever return to the pre-Oct....I don't think VIX will ever return to the pre-Oct. 17th levels. On Oct. 17, 2008, the options market makers lost their ability for naked shorting to hedge option positions they were holding. Since they now have to pay to borrow stocks for hedging by shorting the underlying stock, that cost is now going to be reflected in the premium pricing structure.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18097751635786862335noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-76175062565288439772009-02-27T15:14:00.000-08:002009-02-27T15:14:00.000-08:00Two tough questions, Eric.In theory, the VIX shoul...Two tough questions, Eric.<BR/><BR/>In theory, the VIX should decline slowly if the SPX continues to go sideways. It will eventually run up against a bottom that will be influenced by the extent of concerns about financial institutions, national debt, the housing market, consumer spending power, etc. My guess is that floor is in the 22-25 range if we get 4-6 months of sideways action.<BR/><BR/>Gold volatility is at least as complicated of a subject as is the VIX. It is strange in that there are extended periods when gold and gold volatility are positively correlated and other periods when gold and gold volatility are negatively correlated. I am still trying to nail down some rules for trading gold based on gold volatility signals.<BR/><BR/>As you point out, fundamental factors may trump TA here. In the end, thinking of gold as a "monetary policy fear indicator" might not be such a bad idea.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/><BR/>-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-51970718583330263552009-02-27T10:26:00.000-08:002009-02-27T10:26:00.000-08:00One more thing, what are your thoughts on Gold Vol...One more thing, what are your thoughts on Gold Volatility? I personally do not subscribe to any near-term inflation scenario, esp since the Money Supply hasn't effectively grown even with all the the Fed and Treasury have done. I believe what is happening to Gold is the same thing that happened to Oil (all money flow without anywhere better to go).Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04630536319901757179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-71220747585777979662009-02-27T10:23:00.000-08:002009-02-27T10:23:00.000-08:00In theory what should the VIX do in an L-shaped re...In theory what should the VIX do in an L-shaped recovery? Could we see the VIX go back to 10 or 20 without any real gain in the S&P from here? For example, if Beta starts dropping during a prolonged consolidation period.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04630536319901757179noreply@blogger.com