tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post4952391571326011716..comments2024-03-28T06:07:36.391-07:00Comments on VIX and More: VIX Convergence Zone in Mid-20sBill Lubyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-676985340830988932009-06-28T12:58:16.810-07:002009-06-28T12:58:16.810-07:00For those interested, my weekly market analysis:
...For those interested, my weekly market analysis:<br /><br />http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/06/sunday-night-coffee-6282009.html<br /><br />The VIX, like many charts, seems that it is at an inflection point. Could be off to the races or a breakdown below the existing trading range.adminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14490221759728357211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-29922831650286246012009-06-27T09:46:22.180-07:002009-06-27T09:46:22.180-07:00great work Bill....
we are also at upsloping tren...great work Bill....<br /><br />we are also at upsloping trendline support here on the vix (3 prior touches)<br /><br />feb07 may08 aug08Erikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12581489893598823737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-52528882530862337322009-06-27T07:50:55.347-07:002009-06-27T07:50:55.347-07:00Bill, have you played VXX at all. I am long that ...Bill, have you played VXX at all. I am long that instrument and not doing well the past couple of days. <br /><br />Just curious as to your thoughts. ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-38833815180512958512009-06-26T12:17:33.355-07:002009-06-26T12:17:33.355-07:00TripleQ,
Indeed the realized volatility data have...TripleQ,<br /><br />Indeed the realized volatility data have been very low, largely due to six days early in the month where the SPX was stuck on 940.<br /><br />An occasional 2% day is warranted, but Monday's 3% day should be a warning of sorts and help to put a floor on the VIX that is, IMHO, fairly close to the current level.<br /><br />I am also cognizant of the fact that IV is usually substantially higher than realized volatility, so until realized volatility starts to drop below 20...<br /><br />Bottom line, I think the next two weeks are going to be very interesting -- and set the stage for the last half of the year. Another big bull leg is certainly not out of the question.<br /><br />-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-45959712450061164822009-06-26T12:10:22.435-07:002009-06-26T12:10:22.435-07:00Hi Bill, if you look at realized vols over the pas...Hi Bill, if you look at realized vols over the past month or so, it looks like both the VIX and VIX futures have overpriced it, so one might argue that the VIX has been inconsistent - but too high.TripleQhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05715558893998643396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-88513029406251797542009-06-26T10:52:47.395-07:002009-06-26T10:52:47.395-07:00Hi Frank,
When I give away my money, I like to kn...Hi Frank,<br /><br />When I give away my money, I like to know that it's going to a good home!<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-20324258469946946192009-06-26T10:47:44.370-07:002009-06-26T10:47:44.370-07:00bill as a vix futures spread trader; i really enjo...bill as a vix futures spread trader; i really enjoy reading a vix blog. thank you<br />i played vol coming down this week and have a few spreads left going into next week. so we have opposite viewpoints on vol at the moment. <br /><br />go 25 vix!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02781223931807816586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-78893190174469139222009-06-26T10:16:37.407-07:002009-06-26T10:16:37.407-07:00Next week we have end of quarter window dressing, ...Next week we have end of quarter window dressing, the employment report, the ISM survey and a couple of housing data points. Lots of data. Also it is a holiday-shortened week.<br /><br />I will likely have a bearish position going into the week and see how the data falls out and the market reacts. Even though the holiday tends to compress volatility, I will probably be long volatility too.<br /><br />(FWIW, I prefer to save the details of my thinking for the subscriber newsletter -- at least for my weekly outlook.)<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-2443087376216069082009-06-26T09:40:21.435-07:002009-06-26T09:40:21.435-07:00What are your thoughts for next week, and more imp...What are your thoughts for next week, and more importantly based on your analsis how would you profit from it?nigam arorahttp://blog.thearorareport.com/noreply@blogger.com