tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post4534593276642984938..comments2024-03-28T06:07:36.391-07:00Comments on VIX and More: CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio in Bear TerritoryBill Lubyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-83035344763257858132009-08-08T04:20:40.970-07:002009-08-08T04:20:40.970-07:00After the October 1929 crash, Wall Street staged a...After the October 1929 crash, Wall Street staged a 50% rally, just like the rally we had from March to now. Also the 1929 rally occurred during a five-month period from November 1929 to April 1930, just like our current rally has spanned from the beginning of March to the beginning of August.<br /><br />What does this tell us?<br /><br />This market is playing out exactly like the post-1929 crash period, and they made the SPX bottom at 666 with the intent to take it to 1000 -- a big nice round number -- after a 50% rally.<br /><br />Come on: this market is all "pre-programmed" and they had written its script a long time ago.<br /><br />As a "carbon copy" of the 1929 crash.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-61986663322103912992009-08-07T15:14:07.021-07:002009-08-07T15:14:07.021-07:00Hi Bill,
here is a link showing a study of the 21...Hi Bill, <br />here is a link showing a study of the 21 day MA of the equity P/C and it's short and long term implications. Please double check for accuracy or perhaps bad interpretation of data.<br /><br />http://smallfishbigodds.blogspot.com/2009/08/equity-putcall-everyone-winner.htmlThe Small Fishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04619208391948286184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-75967386665025711752009-08-07T15:12:23.361-07:002009-08-07T15:12:23.361-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.dizzyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01612589736262550180noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-85634677928826346772009-08-07T14:15:02.938-07:002009-08-07T14:15:02.938-07:00yeah the signals r all mixed. but dollar could be...yeah the signals r all mixed. but dollar could be making a significant turning point now as more bearish bets r piling on energy sector. i was surprised to see the strong dollar bullishness and energy bearishness today. the gold didn't break out the resistance. baltic index is down a lot this week.<br /><br />commodity correction is coming soon.stonebathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13067880752297712041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-221255329063867152009-08-07T11:28:04.201-07:002009-08-07T11:28:04.201-07:00Very interesting, Small Fish. Feel free to link t...Very interesting, Small Fish. Feel free to link to your post here when it is up.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-62282945457506696982009-08-07T11:10:29.734-07:002009-08-07T11:10:29.734-07:00have been running a few studies on the low reading...have been running a few studies on the low reading, including the fact that the 10MA has approached 0.61 recently. When you look at this on a chart (overlay a 10ma of the $ECPC), it seems to indicate that this is bearish. However when you run studies to guage performance, the results are mixed it seems. Infact, for the very short term, the results actually seem to be POSITIVE! I'll probably post the results later.The Small Fishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04619208391948286184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-9708701964905267372009-08-07T10:48:30.821-07:002009-08-07T10:48:30.821-07:00yeap, like last September/October when majority of...yeap, like last September/October when majority of indicators were broken as buy signals failed, now it looks like plenty of sell signals from these same indicators are laid to waste too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-22085682221087132282009-08-07T08:18:40.867-07:002009-08-07T08:18:40.867-07:00vix:vxv is steadily going up since vix has been st...vix:vxv is steadily going up since vix has been steady lately. dollar had some bounce but still not strong enough. cash for clunker program is gonna prop up the gdp artificially. i guess the market has more room to go up... and it will be very difficult to spot the top. the late waders will start jumping in.stonebathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13067880752297712041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-29708498882385624052009-08-07T08:02:12.285-07:002009-08-07T08:02:12.285-07:00Well...today's non-farm payrolls destroys (or ...Well...today's non-farm payrolls destroys (or at least significantly degrades) about 90% of the arguments that the bears have been making of late.<br /><br />One by one, the panic selling scenarios are coming off the table.<br /><br />Looks like the call buyers will be nicely rewarded this time around. Put to call ratios were not an effective contrarian sentiment indicator for the current market environment.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-85884993417403228952009-08-06T10:38:36.670-07:002009-08-06T10:38:36.670-07:00It's hard to see the current market momentum a...It's hard to see the current market momentum abating anytime before S&P hits 1050. Instead of buying index puts, it may be wise to sell individual stock puts. Stock picking and selling its puts may be a better game going forward.Chandranoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-18063246706530396972009-08-06T10:33:47.543-07:002009-08-06T10:33:47.543-07:001016? 1021? who knows. i guess there will be more...1016? 1021? who knows. i guess there will be more obvious sign around this month's OE date.stonebathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13067880752297712041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-30731888015854940422009-08-06T06:53:36.230-07:002009-08-06T06:53:36.230-07:00monthly chart of $SPX. 200MA is 1016. if spx fai...monthly chart of $SPX. 200MA is 1016. if spx fails to break out the level and plunges again, the 200MA line would point downward...stonebathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13067880752297712041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-1282152800251914672009-08-06T06:05:16.669-07:002009-08-06T06:05:16.669-07:00I'm buying it. Take a look at the NYSE declini...I'm buying it. Take a look at the NYSE declining volumes ($NYDNV). We're taking a nose dive !<br /><br />PierreUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18220989776161535592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-32180485430379228772009-08-06T04:26:43.692-07:002009-08-06T04:26:43.692-07:00Cobra has been Bearish since March. Not that the s...Cobra has been Bearish since March. Not that the study isn't interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com