tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post4054442809440447443..comments2024-03-29T03:46:10.767-07:00Comments on VIX and More: An Introduction to Treasury AuctionsBill Lubyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-23335798923586923952009-08-28T08:46:05.222-07:002009-08-28T08:46:05.222-07:00Great comments on this one. Thanks to all for pit...Great comments on this one. Thanks to all for pitching in here.<br /><br />Some of my thoughts on what I read above:<br /><br />1) I agree that something like "net refunding" would be a valuable addition -- or better yet a graphic of refunding-related flows<br /><br />2) Regarding the issue of indirect bidders and the lack of transparency around how these are accounted for, I tried to address this in my subsequent post<br /><br />3) With respect to time series data, the best I have seen is from Open Market Operations and Statistics (Zero Hedge), which is one of the links in my next post<br /><br />4) Finally, thanks for the link to Naufal Sanaullah's Game Theory Trading. Earlier in the year, I was thinking that some dicey government announcements just prior to important auctions may not have been a coincidence.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-63749836809773026822009-08-27T20:10:54.724-07:002009-08-27T20:10:54.724-07:00Steve:
Regarding your surmise rates will have to ...Steve:<br /><br />Regarding your surmise rates will have to increase to attract new Treasuries buyers, I recommend Naufal Sanaullah's excellent post "Game Theory Trading" at "http://shadowcapitalism.com/2009/08/24/game-theory-trading/". Naufal theorizes the Fed and the Treasury will choreograph an equities market crash this fall to resurrect panic to bring back the panic trade -- the mass purchase of Treasuries -- to lower rates so the credit reflation can continue. Highly recommended reading.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-30344750812778214542009-08-27T17:01:36.154-07:002009-08-27T17:01:36.154-07:00Excellent post on a topic that I have been watchin...Excellent post on a topic that I have been watching for some time.<br />Watch out for a bond auction failure!PW Baileyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12850213950185994178noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-57322113228063010782009-08-27T16:39:04.657-07:002009-08-27T16:39:04.657-07:00I read your excellent blog re Treas
Auctions. Lear...I read your excellent blog re Treas<br />Auctions. Learned very much. I have grave concerns, however, that the positive reception of Treas offerings will not continue for much longer. Rates will have to increase in order to attract new/future Treas buyers (both Domestic and Foreign). I look forward to your next blog/post.Steve Schmidtnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-62292158045560303152009-08-27T11:47:05.625-07:002009-08-27T11:47:05.625-07:00Is there a way to measure who is buying the debt o...Is there a way to measure who is buying the debt on an auction by auction basis? It seems that following a major downturn, the investor psychology is risk averse (more than normal). We see that with increased savings rate. Does that increased savings rate translate into Americans buying Treasures? It seems to me that it would.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04630536319901757179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-63593737555133670932009-08-27T10:45:30.649-07:002009-08-27T10:45:30.649-07:00Bill,
Does anybody keep time-series data on the s...Bill,<br /><br />Does anybody keep time-series data on the secondary market criteria (coverage, indirect percentage, etc.), for comparison and trend analysis ? Perhaps, even, charts of those desiderata ? That would be most useful.Fitznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-58361537638574264442009-08-27T03:12:53.814-07:002009-08-27T03:12:53.814-07:00The percentage of stocks that are trading above th...The percentage of stocks that are trading above their 200 day moving average reached over 90.9%, the second highest reading since these statistics were recorded in 1986. The all-time high for this statistic was 94.6% near the beginning of 2004. The stock markets continued for go higher for about 2.5 months before any meaningfull correction took place in the U.S. stock markets in 2004. Based on this, Dow 10000 is likely to exceeded by October 2009. The Treasury actions will not stop this event from occurring.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-4204928395859641282009-08-26T18:18:46.942-07:002009-08-26T18:18:46.942-07:00There is growing concern that the Fed is allowing ...There is growing concern that the Fed is allowing foreign central banks to swap their agency bonds for treasuries via offshore vehicles. <br /><br />Even the recent Fed disclosure court order won't reveal the full identity of the parties.In Debt We Trusthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05283475872936333396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-72226764650769963542009-08-26T17:11:40.243-07:002009-08-26T17:11:40.243-07:00Uh, who cares about demand when the non-federal fe...Uh, who cares about demand when the non-federal federal reserve can just buy all the bonds via an offshore shell corporation and call it "indirect" bidders?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-77883287029159934342009-08-26T14:54:09.870-07:002009-08-26T14:54:09.870-07:00Bill-
As a bond ignoramus, I found your post very...Bill-<br /><br />As a bond ignoramus, I found your post very informative. <br /><br />Thanks!Tyler Craighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154665339819426699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-40515019056758589492009-08-26T14:43:45.644-07:002009-08-26T14:43:45.644-07:00Thanks for the summary, it increased my understand...Thanks for the summary, it increased my understanding of debt auctions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-45441960862627182142009-08-26T12:25:09.903-07:002009-08-26T12:25:09.903-07:00Bill, another wild card in the interpretation of a...Bill, another wild card in the interpretation of any one auction and that is the net amount of new cash raised. One of the July auctions (2/5/7 notes?) where gross less maturing less interest payments resulted in very little net new money. This scenario will be increasingly less likely going forward but must be considered amid reports of an auction "going well" or not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com