tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post2793571924850923440..comments2024-03-28T06:07:36.391-07:00Comments on VIX and More: Failure to LaunchBill Lubyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-91022859749641602422008-10-10T08:18:00.000-07:002008-10-10T08:18:00.000-07:00Regarding oversold signals, this is a large subjec...Regarding oversold signals, this is a large subject and one I am going to have to save for a future post.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/><BR/>-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-34341507112363676372008-10-10T05:39:00.000-07:002008-10-10T05:39:00.000-07:00What technical indicators are most accurate in det...What technical indicators are most accurate in determing oversold market conditions? What websites should one review to obtain readings and/or graphs of these indicators?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-76860694324066113802008-10-09T12:34:00.000-07:002008-10-09T12:34:00.000-07:00You called it. VIX currently over 60 1/2 hour bef...You called it. VIX currently over 60 1/2 hour before the close and no relief in site. Unlikley Friday will be bullish with the long weekend ahead, so VIX 80 may indeed come to past if the plunge continues.bzbtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11607843481812042367noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-79535209572484508772008-10-09T09:59:00.000-07:002008-10-09T09:59:00.000-07:00All excellent points, Mikkel.The CDS unwind and th...All excellent points, Mikkel.<BR/><BR/>The CDS unwind and the hedge funds delevering and dealing with redemptions are, IMHO, significant barriers to a turnaround. The restrictions on shorting financials probably made the situation worse too.<BR/><BR/>Frankly, I thought the Fed's Commercial Paper Funding Facility would help, but it has barely moved the needle.<BR/><BR/>I suspect there are too many "adverse feedback loops" at work right now...but once the first one or two of these are broken, some of the other pieces <I> might</I> start to snap back into place.<BR/><BR/>Cheers and thanks for the comment,<BR/><BR/>-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-73053043726159210562008-10-09T09:50:00.000-07:002008-10-09T09:50:00.000-07:00As much as I'm itching to take advantage of this l...As much as I'm itching to take advantage of this level of being oversold (which based on a little research looks to be more the most oversold ever from a "next leg down" perspective) a couple things really need to get resolved first.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/lehman-cds-unwi.html" REL="nofollow">CDS unwind</A> for Lehman is huge, and well TED spread needs to at least drop under 3%.<BR/><BR/>The fact that they have injected literally over a Trillion dollars the last couple weeks and there is still no short term lending shows that something is massively, horribly wrong. If there is a large adverse event then even companies like GE are at risk from defaulting on short term debt...and they are saying as much.Mikkelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00169256264012468618noreply@blogger.com