tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post7151100655942630083..comments2024-03-29T03:46:10.767-07:00Comments on VIX and More: Party Like It’s 1996?!?Bill Lubyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-47220023765832611072007-09-21T11:34:00.000-07:002007-09-21T11:34:00.000-07:00Ah yes. I had completely forgotten that Adam, you ...Ah yes. I had completely forgotten that Adam, you and I had an exchange on this. Thanks.<BR/><BR/>EricAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-30906530349765037272007-09-21T11:02:00.000-07:002007-09-21T11:02:00.000-07:00Hi Eric,I posted about this subject back when it h...Hi Eric,<BR/><BR/>I posted about this subject back when <A HREF="http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2007/03/20-under-10-day-sma-then-what.html" REL="nofollow">it happened in March</A>.<BR/><BR/>My data appear to be slightly different than yours (I had the VIX down 18.5% from the 10 day SMA on 6/29/06), but the mean-reverting VIX rise is what past data would likely forecast.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/><BR/>-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-35438091086961714802007-09-21T08:16:00.000-07:002007-09-21T08:16:00.000-07:00Hi Bill. As I look at the VIX this Friday morning,...Hi Bill. As I look at the VIX this Friday morning, at 18.75, it is almost, but not quite 20% below its 10 day average. I looked back over the past few years to see similar occurences and I can only find a couple: 6/29/06, 3/21/07, and 8/24/07. Any thoughts on the signficance of this?<BR/><BR/>EricAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-3153294238901667032007-09-21T01:30:00.000-07:002007-09-21T01:30:00.000-07:00I don´t have any problem with that reasoning. In 9...I don´t have any problem with that reasoning. In 96, more or less, the market broke out of low vol uptrend that had lasted for a long time. Add to that, despite 4 and a half years of steady gains, stocks have yet to yet to see sustained bouts of panic buying. I won´t be betting on it, but it wouldn´t surprise.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-23655703894801501412007-09-20T16:20:00.000-07:002007-09-20T16:20:00.000-07:00Thanks for this website...I really like it a lotThanks for this website...I really like it a lotAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-50875532435497255472007-09-20T15:43:00.000-07:002007-09-20T15:43:00.000-07:00Hi anon,My apologies; I have a tendency to leave o...Hi anon,<BR/><BR/>My apologies; I have a tendency to leave out the punch line. In any event, the particular observation which triggered the 1996 vs. 2007 comparison is the steep crossing of the 48 month SMA by the 6 month SMA. The only previous times the 6 crossed the 48 SMA at such a steep angle were in 1996, early 2001, and the middle of 2002. In other words, two bulls an a bear.<BR/><BR/>I wouldn't necessarily use this information to place bets, but rather more for something to think about.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/><BR/>-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-85988621386123990272007-09-20T13:39:00.000-07:002007-09-20T13:39:00.000-07:00Can you extrapolate as to your reasoning on why yo...Can you extrapolate as to your reasoning on why you feel this environment is similar to 1996? THe VIX is certainly a lot higher than 1996. Is it something else that you see?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com